Super Tuesday for Barack Obama, regardless of what certain pundits say...

I remember before the Iowa Caucus, I was heading out and received a call from a long-time friend. He mentioned what he'd heard regarding the polls and I had heard similar numbers. Obama had an outside shot at Iowa and maybe New Hampshire, but would get swept the rest of the way. He had no chance. Hillary would dominate and clinch a victory on Super Tuesday, at the very latest. At that time, I was just kind of accepting that as a fact. I had seen the rest of the polls. Obama was down and down huge in most every other state. He then won Iowa by a 38-30-29% count, with Hillary finishing third. He finished second in New Hampshire to Senator Clinton and many pundits said, "Well, this is the beginning of the end for Obama." He still trailed by a wide margin in many states and still, I felt pessimistic about him being the Democratic nominee for president come November. He lost in Nevada and dominated in South Carolina. Even with the win in South Carolina, many said, "The Clinton's strategy worked. They attempted to push him to looking like just another African-American candidate who'd appeal to only African-Americans." This would hinder his performance amongst whites, Latinos, Asians, etc. So, in other words, he was finished.

While Obama led in delegates, 63 to 48, over Senator Clinton, Super Tuesday appeared to be leaning heavily in Clinton's favor. While it may not be a "decisive" victory, it'd all but wrap up the nomination for the New York Senator. But, following Bill Clinton's controversial words, Hillary's attacks, and the negativity press that ensued, members of Congress began to endorse Obama with more regularity, including Massachusetts Senator, Ted Kennedy. Clinton was still favored to win in the majority of Super Tuesday states, but the gap was gradually closing. Hillary led in California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alaska, and Oklahoma. She led big in many of those states, 20-30 percentage points, in states like Massachusetts, California, New York, New Jersey, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. She also led by double-digits in Missouri, Connecticut, Arizona, and Minnesota.

Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama nationally by approximately 13% and in recent days, that lead has shrunk in most polls to 9% or less. They were even tied in a couple polls. But, even with this recent "surge" of Obama, most pundits believed Clinton would win Super Tuesday by 100 delegates. That'd be a "good" night for Obama and keep him in the race. Obama's camp stated just before and on Super Tuesday that if they were able to split the delegates, they'd be thrilled with that and most pundits agreed.

So, what happened on Super Tuesday? Obama won 13 states: Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut, Delaware, Alaska, Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia. That's the same Minnesota where Obama trailed by double-digits just a week and a half ago. That's the same Connecticut that favored Clinton by double-digits a week and a half to two weeks ago. That's the same Delaware where Clinton led, even in polls on February 5th. That's the same Alaska and Alabama where she led. It's the same Missouri that Clinton led by 11% a week and a half ago. He won 13 states and New Mexico is still not out of the realm of possibility. So, at the very worst, Obama won 13 out of 22 states, giving him, at worst, 15 state victories total. At best, Hillary won 9 states on Tuesday, giving her 11 victories overall and 13 if one includes Florida and Michigan. Before the Iowa Caucus, I was told and I observed polls which backed up the pundits' statements, that Obama would win, at the most, two states: Iowa and New Hampshire. He had no chance in the northeast, the northwest, west, rockies, midwest, southeast, or mid-atlantic states. Added to those wins, Clinton won California by just 10% (52-42), did not eclipse 60% in her home state of New York (57-40), where Obama received 40% of the delegates, won by only 10% in New Jersey (54-44), won by just 15% in Massachusetts (56-41), won by only 9% in Arizona (51-42), and by only 13% in Tennessee (54-41). She led by 30% in Massachusetts just a couple weeks ago, where Obama garnered only 22% of the vote. She was up over 20% in New Jersey, 30% in New York, 15-20% in Arizona, 20% in Tennessee, and 20-30% in California. The only two states where Clinton dominated were in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Oklahoma is one of three states Obama didn't visit in his run-up to Super Tuesday and a state where he/they only spent approximately $400,000 in ads. Arkansas is the home state of the Clintons, where Hillary's husband, Bill, was governor for a good period of time before his presidency. In all of those states Hillary won, Obama was held under 40% in only two, the two I just mentioned. That wasn't the case in Obama's victories. Hillary was held under 40% in the following states: Idaho (17%), Utah, Colorado, Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Alaska, and Georgia. In 9 of the 13 states Obama won, he dominated. The only four states where he didn't, were in Connecticut (51-47), Delaware (53-42), Alabama (56-42), and Missouri (49-48).

The Hillary camp wants to project the night as a victory for them, that they were the underdog, and that by winning New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California, it proved they were ready for the general election and Hillary Clinton would be the Democrat best suited to defeat whomever the Republican nominee is come November. They also want to make it seem as if Super Tuesday halted Obama's momentum.

What kind of world are they living in? Remember when Obama was said to be lucky if he won a single state? Remember when every pundit and analyst about guaranteed an easy landslide victory for Hillary Clinton? What was supposed to have been a deciding Tuesday for the Clinton camp, became a hard-fought tussle, which saw their opponent, Barack Obama, win more states and pull in more delegates than their candidate. The final tally from Super Tuesday has not been concluded, but both the Obama and Clinton camps agree that Obama will come away with a few more delegates, anywhere from 2 to 20 more than Senator Clinton. Obama was going to win his home state of Illinois and had a pretty good chance at winning Georgia, but no other state was a guarantee for the Senator. Connecticut and Delaware were basically in Clinton's backyard. He trailed in Minnesota and Missouri, the bellweather state. Alabama was a toss-up state, which showcased a 5% lead for Clinton in at least one poll going into Super Tuesday. Colorado and Utah were both toss-ups. One couldn't have been sure in Caucus states such as Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, or Alaska. She won the majority of her home states or neighboring states to those home states. She won in Arkanas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. She also won in New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Finally, California could be construed as a third home to the Clintons, where she was victorious, along with Arizona. So, please, don't tell me that it's any kind of shock or upset that Hillary Clinton won California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Tennessee. Her best win of the night, in my opinion? Arizona, which was considered to be a toss-up state. She did lead in most of the polls I saw, but most of those polls had her up by 5% or less going into Super Tuesday.

Also, the argument that she won the blue states which Democrats have to win come November? Give me another break. I could be the Democratic nominee and win states like New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. When's the last time they voted Republican? The northeast and northwest are blue, all the way. Obama won Connecticut. I couldn't say for one second that Hillary wouldn't carry that state if she won the Democratic nomination. Polls also show her in a much tighter race with John McCain in the state of California than Barack Obama would be. She did win the battleground state of Arizona, but guess what? John McCain is from where? Arizona, so regardless of who the Democratic nominee is, McCain will carry that state in the general election. BUT, Obama won the following battleground states: Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, and Minnesota may be moving more into that direction, as well. If he is the Democratic nominee, he will win in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and most likely, California. But, he brings something else to the table that Hillary doesn't. He has won red states, some with rather heavy African-American populations, including Georgia and South Carolina. Many pundits claim that a Democrat doesn't have a chance in the world to win one of these states. I wouldn't be so quick to judge. Democrats have been much more enthusiastic in the Primaries/Caucuses than Republicans and if that contiues in the general election, Obama could surprise some people in the southeast. Don't forget, there were more Democratic voters in the South Carolina Primary than Republican ones. That's almost unheard of. This could also be the case in the mid-atlantic states, in Virginia and North Carolina. He could also cause some problems for Republicans in the smaller red states, where younger voters could potentially off-set the older, more conservative crowd, in a state without a heavy population. This is the case in states like: Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, North and South Dakota, and even Nebraska. Nebraska is a very red state, but with only a million people, if the young voters are extra motivated, the state could go blue for the first time in a long while.

Hillary doesn't have a chance in some of these states. While many conservatives are not happy at the prospect of having to potentially vote for John McCain, they will not vote for Hillary Clinton and may be more motivated at having the opportunity to vote against Hillary than Obama. Obama also lures in more Independents and liberal to moderate Republicans than Clinton.

Super Tuesday was supposed to be the conclusion to the Democratic battle for the nomination. Instead, we're neck and neck. Regardless of what pundits now want to say regarding momentum and the victory last night for Hillary Clinton, they should press the rewind button in their noggin's hippocampus to a month or two ago before the Iowa Caucus, fast-forward again to the current time and then give an honest viewpoint on what transpired last night. Obama's campaign garnered $32 million in January alone, compared to $13 million for Clinton. She even admitted today that she loaned $5 million from her own pocket to the campaign and that many of her workers won't be getting paid this month. Meanwhile, Obama's campaign has earned $3 million today alone from online donors and are on pace to make another $30 million in February. The Clinton campaign also said today they won't be spending much money in the upcoming few states: Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, D.C., Maryland, Maine, and Virginia. These are all states which Obama could potentially win. I'm fairly confident on all of them outside of Maine, although, with so many Independents there, I give a slight edge to Obama. If Obama wins the majority of those states, he'll have the lead going into March 4th, where Ohio and Texas come into play.

Regardless of what pundits want to say, Obama carried that momentum over into Super Tuesday and beyond. There's a reason why Clinton wants to debate Obama four more times between now and March 4th. She's running low on money, wants to limit Obama's rallies, and put herself in the public eye, as she will be unable to do much of due to her financial situation.

Momentum is all on Obama's side right now, no ifs, ands or buts about it. For the second time in the past week, it appears as if the heavy favorite is being taken to the final quarter, final seconds of what appears to be a nail-biting finish.