MVP Talk

Well, it's all but a certainty that Auburn's Cam Newton will win the Heisman on Saturday. With four weeks left in the regular season, however, the chase for NFL MVP is anything but decided.

The New England Patriots face the New York Jets tonight in what may be a battle for the #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs, but going in to tonight, I have to believe that the Patriots' quarterback, Tom Brady, is most deserving of the award. On the season, Brady is 236-356 (66.3%) throwing the ball for 2,703 yards (7.59 ypa), 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 105.8, currently tops in the NFL, 0.1 ahead of Philadelphia Eagles' quarterback, Michael Vick. Brady also has 1 rushing touchdown to his credit. What makes Brady's numbers so impressive this season is the fact he has done it without much of a running game (Danny Woodhead? Really) or much of a vertical threat in the passing game after Randy Moss was traded to the Minnesota Vikings. Deion Branch and Wes Welker are solid NFL receivers, but aren't known as being game-breaking types. The Patriots are also ranked near the bottom of the league in pass defense and have allowed 266 points in 11 games (24.2 ppg). So, Brady has had to adjust his game to suit the team's strengths (or lack there of) and has taken this team and firmly implanted it on his shoulders, being cognizant of the fact that every week, they need to score about four touchdowns if they want to come out on top in the contest. The amazing part is they have and have regularly, as going in to tonight's game with the Jets, the Patriots are tied for the best record in the AFC (with New York) at 9-2. There's still a long ways to go, as the Pats still have to play New York (9-2) tonight at home, Chicago (9-3) on the road, Green Bay (8-4) at home, Buffalo (2-10) on the road and Miami (6-6) at home, so four of the five games are against clubs whom currently own a .500 record or better, three of them with an 8-4 or better record.

My runner-up at this point would have to be Philadelphia Eagles' quarterback, Michael Vick. Phillip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers has had to carry a large load this year, but with his club's record at an even 6-6 and two back of the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, the Chargers will have to win next week against the Chiefs and then make up a game or two in the remaining three weeks, pending the tie-breakers. If they lose to Kansas City next week, that will all but eliminate them from playoff contention. Actually, I think it would. So, no matter how impressive Rivers' numbers may be at season's end, unless he can lead his team to the playoffs in arguably the second weakest division in the NFL (Nobody can grab that "honor" from the NFC West), I have a hard time picking him as my MVP or even my runner-up. Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints has had a pretty solid year, but with his 15 interceptions that have indeed hurt the club, I have a hard time picking him in my top two either. There's also been mention of Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay, Matt Ryan of Atlanta, Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville, Clay Matthews of Green Bay, Roddy White of Atlanta and Dwayne Bowe of Kansas City. Rodgers, I see as a pretty viable candidate, especially after starting tailback, Ryan Grant, went down in the pre-season. If Jacksonville can hang on to the lead in the AFC South, Jones-Drew could garner some votes. Bowe had an off-game yesterday for the Chiefs (most players on both offenses did, especially Kyle Orton) and it'd be very surprising to see him carry the honor. Matt Ryan is a great game manager for the Atlanta Falcons, but I just don't see him as MVP material right now. The Falcons' defense has kept them in most every game. Their offense is loaded with studs at the skill positions, in tailback Michael Turner, veteran tight end, Tony Gonzalez and one of the top receivers in the league, Roddy White. Speaking of White, he may be able to earn some votes, but again, it'd be very surprising to see a wide receiver win the award or even place second, this year at least. Finally, one guy that I think should be seen as a worthy MVP-candidate is Clay Matthews of the Green Bay Packers, but when will a defensive player win the award?

So, that brings us to my runner-up for the time, Michael Vick. Some don't believe Vick should be in the top 2 or 3 in the MVP race because: 1) He missed games (3 full and 2 halves, so about 4 total out of 12), 2) He's loaded with weapons around him (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy) and 3) The Eagles' offensive performance didn't drop off much when back-up, Kevin Kolb, played. Okay, those are all somewhat worthy arguments, especially the first, but I disagree. First off, Kolb has started and finished three games. The Eagles were 2-1 in these games, as they beat San Francisco (4-8) 27-24, Atlanta (10-2) 31-17 and lost to Tennessee (5-7) 19-37. In the half he played against Green Bay (8-4), the Eagles came away with 3 points and in the half he played against Washington (5-7), they scored 9. So, in the 3 games he started and finished, the Eagles have scored 77 points to their opponents' 78 (average of 25.7 - 26.0 = -0.3). If we include the two halves he played and mark that down as one full game, the Eagles would have scored 89 points in 4 games under the control of Kolb (22.3 average) and allowed 94 points in those games (23.5 average = -1.2). Meanwhile, Vick has started and finished 7 games (6-1) and played halves of two others for a total of 8. In the games he started and finished, the Eagles have outscored their opponents 235-159 (average of 33.6 - 22.7 = +10.9). If we include the two halves he played and mark that as another game, that score would be 255-187 (31.9 - 23.4 = +8.5). So, in games they've started and finished, Vick is 6-1 compared to 2-1 for Kolb. The offense has generated an average of 33.6 points a game with Vick in compared to 25.7 for Kolb, a difference of 7.9 points a game. The defense has allowed an average of 22.7 points a game with Vick under center, compared to 26.0 with Kolb, a difference of 3.3. Lastly, the outcomes have been vastly different, as with Vick at quarterback, the Eagles average to win each game by 10.9 points, compared to when Kolb is quarterback, they're averaging to lose by 0.3 points, a difference of 11.2 points a game. Kolb filled in nicely when Vick was injured, but to say the Eagles are as good or even close to as good with Kolb behind center as Vick, are only kidding themselves. Secondly, it's true, the Eagles are blessed with speed on offense: LeSean McCoy at tailback, along with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin at receiver. However, their offensive line has been anything but consistent, as Vick has been sacked 23 times this year in about 8 total games, almost exactly 3 per contest. He's also been hit numerous more times. If anyone needs an example, watch the Texans' game from last Thursday. Also, like I just mentioned, look at the offensive numbers and compare them between Vick and Kolb. While Jackson was banged up in the Atlanta game, Kolb still had McCoy, Maclin, Celek and company to work with on offense. Still, he led the team to about 8 fewer points a game. Thirdly, it's true, Vick missed some time due to injury this year. But, look at his numbers in comparison to Brady, my front-runner for MVP. On the season, Vick is 171-268 (63.8%) passing the football for 2,243 yards (8.37 ypa), 15 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 105.7. He's also run the ball 74 times for 467 yards (6.3 ypc) and 6 more scores. So, Brady leads by about 2.5% in completion percentage, but both quarterbacks have been very efficient this year. Brady also has 8 more touchdown passes, a slightly better quarterback rating (0.1 difference) and has thrown for 460 more yards than the Eagles' quarterback. But, once we look at this closer, shouldn't that make Vick's numbers look that much more impressive? First, Vick is averaging 0.78 more yards per every pass attempt. When including rushing yards, he has 2,710 yards of total offense compared to Brady's 2,716, a difference of 6 yards. When including scores on the ground, Vick has 21 total compared to 24 for Brady, a difference of only 3. In 8 total games this season, Vick is averaging to throw for 280.4 yards and run for an additional 58.4 per game, averaging a total of 338.8 yards of total offense per every sixty minutes. Brady, meanwhile, is averaging 246.9 yards of total offense a game, 91.9 fewer yards than Vick. At this pace, if Vick were to play the rest of the season, he'd finish with 3,364 yards passing and 701 yards rushing for a total of 4,065 yards of total offense, after having missed 4 total games. Amazingly, if he had played all 16 games at this pace, Vick would have finished with 4,486 yards passing and 934 yards on the ground for a grand total of 5,420 yards. Lastly, let's not forget that like the Patriots, the Eagles have anything but a steady defense, as they've allowed 281 points this year (23.4 per game), so the margin of error for Vick has been minimal, to say the least.

These are the two most deserving players of the award at the time, I think. There are several viable candidates, but these two stand out the most for me. For the time being, I give the edge to Brady, but there are still 4 weeks to go (5 games for the Pats).