Now, There's A Dumb Idea!

I just read a column by yahoo.com's NFL columnist Charles Robinson and was I ever blown away? Not in a good sense. The column had the insight of a Brent Musburger. The column listed seven teams according to the seven deadly sins and giving reasons why these teams wouldn't win the Super Bowl. Who'd he list? Indianapolis (4-0), Atlanta (3-1), Pittsburgh (1-2, defending Super Bowl Champs), Cincinnati (3-1), New England (3-1), Dallas (2-1), and then he clumped three potential teams for the final deadly sin. They were: Baltimore (4-0), Philadelphia (3-1), and Chicago (4-0). The only team with a losing record that he mentioned was the Pittsburgh Steelers and they are the defending Super Bowl Champions. So, who with winning records does this leave? Denver (2-1), San Diego (2-1), Seattle (3-1), St. Louis (3-1), and I believe that's it.

He stated that the Colts relied too heavily on Peyton Manning and the passing game. He didn't give any tips on how to overcome the loss of Edgerrin James. He just basically said they're screwed. Remember, this is one of three unbeaten teams left in the NFL.

Pittsburgh supposedly isn't playing hard enough and is still honeymooning from their Super Bowl victory a year ago. What, he doesn't think the retirement of Jerome Bettis and the loss of Antwaan Randle El have anything to do with this? Or the health status of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger? Let's not forget that the Steelers were in a hole a season ago and they won their final few games in order to just reach the playoffs as a Wild Card, only to go on and win the Super Bowl. They have two losses. Let's not jump the gun just yet with a Bill Cowher led team.

The Bengals have too many moral issues on the team with Chris Henry and Oda Thurman getting into some trouble. This is a team that's already beat the defending champion Steelers and the Chiefs at Arrowhead. They've also overcome the obstacle of Carson Palmer's injury last year. At first prognosis, Palmer wasn't expected to start playing until a few weeks into this season. He started in week 1 and has led the Bengals to a 3-1 record. While he has not played quite as well as he did last year at this time, that's to be expected coming back from that injury. Him playing at all is better than the backup.

The Patriots' can't overcome the loss of Deion Branch. Quarterback Tom Brady can't win with the batch of receivers they have there now. I'm not going to say the Pats are back after last week's throttling of the Cincinnati Bengals, but never count Brady and coach Bill Belichick out of any game. They also have the best hybrid rookie back in the league in Lawrence Maroney. With he and veteran Corey Dillon, they have one of the better tandems in the league in the backfield.

He claimed that because Drew Bledsoe said that Terry Glenn is the best receiver he's ever worked with, T.O. is going to become jealous and start some drama. From what I've learned, T.O. is usually okay during the first full season. He doesn't truly start the war until year 2 if things aren't going to his liking. Dallas has a solid defense, a good 1-2 punch in the backfield with Julius Jones and Marion Barber, and have a good lot of receivers. With Bill Parcells as coach, I would not count this team out, with or without T.O. drama.

Supposedly, the likes of Baltimore, Chicago, and Philadelphia may clinch their divisions and a first-round bye in the playoffs too early, so they'll be likely to rest their starters. This will, in turn, make the teams rusty in the playoffs. What's the winning percentage of teams in the 2nd round who receive a first round bye in the playoffs? I don't know it off the top of my head, but it's quite high. If teams win consistently from start to finish, what does it hurt to give starters an extra bye week? Tell me, Mr. Robinson, what situation would be less costly to Philadelphia, to sit Donovan McNabb during the final week of the season or for him to get hurt in that final week and be unable to play in the playoffs? Yeah, that's what I thought. Next.

That finally brings me to the Atlanta Falcons and guess what? They rely too much on the run. He noted that even though the Falcons may find the running game successful all throughout the regular season, they'll be stopped in the playoffs. Allright, how does that work? If Shaq and D-Wade are successful all throughout the regular season, will that suddenly be stopped in the playoffs? Will Mariano Rivera's success in the regular season be null and void when it comes to him making appearances in the playoffs? When Nebraska ran over competition (literally) back in '95, did that stop in their 62-24 shellacking over Florida in the Fiesta Bowl? But that wasn't even the dumb idea I was referring to in the title of this blog. What did Robinson suggest the Falcons do? Rotate quarterbacks! He suggested that they rotate Vick and back-up Matt Schaub in and out of the game on a regular basis. That doesn't even work in college, let alone in the pros. Remember the Tennessee Volunteers a year ago? The usually highly successful Vols? They finished 5-6 and why? Mainly do to an indecision on who to start at quarterback. The offensive line, the tailbacks, the receivers, and even the offensive coordinator didn't have the opportunity to ever get fully comfortable with a quarterback. That's one of the stupidest ideas I've ever heard! Also, let's get something straight here. Matt Schaub is a solid back-up quarterback, but he completes a lower percentage of passes than Vick, has a worse touchdown to interception ratio, has a lower quarterback rating, and has no wins as an NFL starter compared to 36 for Vick. Oh, and there is that thing called speed, elusiveness, and being a complete pain in the backside for opposing defenses. Ask almost any team in the NFL who the toughest team is to prepare for and they'll say the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson also eluded to the New Orleans' Saints game and how that effort proved beyond a reasonable doubt that Atlanta couldn't came back this year in any game if they had to throw the football. Hey Chuck, CRob, Charles, I don't care who was playing against the Saints that night, New Orleans would have won. Peyton Manning would've gone 10-25. Tom Brady would've gone 12-28. Donovan McNabb would've gone 20-50. The Falcons' receivers dropped balls all night, mainly due to the Saints' defenders being right on top of the receivers (not literally). The receivers heard footsteps and dropped the football. It was as if the Saints knew what play was being called before offensive coordinator Greg Knapp even called the play. That would've been the case with any team that night. So give me a break. We'll eventually find out if Atlanta can come from behind with their passing game. But that Monday nighter against the Saints at the Superdome to celebrate the re-opening after Hurricane Katrina? We can't accurately evaluate the Falcons based on that one game.

The nine teams that Robinson mentioned have a combined 27-7 record, a winning percentage of .794. Yet for one reason or another, these nine teams who are winning almost 80% of the time aren't going to win the Super Bowl. Charles seems to be like that guy on the UPS commercial whose official job is to worry. If there's nothing to worry about? Well, then that right there is something to worry about. Stop worrying Charles. If teams' play great defense, have solid special teams, don't make many mistakes, and execute (however it is they do that) on offense, they're going to have a chance. A run-oriented offense can be successful. A pass-dominated offense can too be successful. The four constants needed to have a shot: 1) Good defense, 2) Solid special teams, 3) Minimal stupid mistakes, and 4) Minimal injuries to starters.