Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Week 5 College Football Newsletter

This was by no means a "Separation Saturday," but there were plenty of exciting edge-of-your-seat games that were played, many of which weren't hyped up by media. The overly hyped contests were disappointing, for the most part, meanwhile, some of the games that appeared to be an appetizer to the main course ended up being themselves that main course. Next week appears to be another "Separation Saturday," as it features the Red River Shootout between Oklahoma and Texas, a Pac Ten battle between unbeaten Oregon and 4-1 Cal, and also an SEC duel between LSU and Florida, amongst other solid matchups. For the first time this year, I will include a top 25 poll which I will expand to include all 119 Division I-A clubs.

The Bonehead Call of the Week
Can I just give this to the Michigan State coaching staff from here on out? This is a bit of deja vu for the Spartans, isn't it? Just a year ago, they started the season 4-0 and on their way to challenge for the Big Ten title. Then came the collapse against Ohio State, when they were up by a couple scores and attempted a field goal to close the first half. OSU blocked the kick, returned it for six, and that was it for the game and the season for the Spartans. This finished 5-6 and because of that, didn't go bowling in the December. It was a similar feel last week, as Michigan State dominated Notre Dame for three quarters in East Lansing and lead 37-21 after three. Like with Ohio State last year, they collapsed against the Irish and Notre Dame scored 19 unanswered in the 4th to win 40-37. The Spartans didn't have much time to mope and dwell on their loss to the Buckeyes, because they had to face Michigan the week following. At least this year they could rebound off of Illinois after their disappointing loss to the Irish, right? Not exactly. The Illinois Fightin' Illini beat the Spartans 23-20 on a last second field goal Saturday. The Spartans weren't focused. They showed no heart. We may be in for another total collapse. Up next? Michigan. After starting the year 3-0, Michigan State will likely fall to 3-3 after Saturday and John L. Smith may be looking for another job at year's end.

The Bonehead Play of the Week
This goes to South Carolina and in particular, a receiver of theirs whose name I didn't catch. Unbeaten and 2nd ranked Auburn led the Gamecocks 24-10 fairly late in the game. Carolina closed the gap to 24-17, held Auburn on their next possession, and late in the 4th quarter, on the Gamecocks' last drive, a thirty-five yard pass hit a Carolina receiver right in the hands in the end zone. The guy dropped it. No excuses. It was a good throw and a great call. The guy simply dropped a ball that would've given the kicker a chance to tie the game with the extra point. Carolina wasn't expected to win that game, but they had the opportunity and failed when a guy got the case of the butterfingers.

The Conference Yo of the Week
I was harsh on the Big XII early on because of their extremely weak non-conference schedule, but they are receiving my Yo of the week. Why? There were some great conference games. Texas Tech came back to beat A&M 31-27 in a wild game. Kansas came back to send the game with Nebraska into overtime before falling 39-32. Baylor upended Kansas State in a low-scoring 17-7 victory. Colorado played their best game of the year thus far, but still fell on the short end to Missouri 28-13. Texas and Iowa State defeated Division I-AA teams, but ISU had problems, winning their game against Northern Iowa 28-27. Oklahoma and Okie State had off.

The Conference Yo No of the Week
The Big Ten was disappointing this weekend, so they get the nod here. Illinois beat the once 3-0 Michigan State Spartans 23-20. Ohio State pounded Iowa 38-17. Michigan dominated Minnesota in a 28-14 win. Penn State beat up Northwestern 33-7. Wisconsin demolished Indiana 52-17. Finally, Purdue got their first loss of the year by falling Notre Dame 35-21. The only competitive game was played between the dwelling Spartans and the usual bottom feeding Illini. This was a very disappointing week for some teams in the Big Ten and very disappointing for the conference in general.

Game of the Week
I know some people around this part of the country will disagree with me on this, but I'm not going to go with Nebraska's overtime win over Kansas. The game was very sloppily played at times, with there being seven turnovers. From start to finish, the best game of the week had to be Texas Tech's 31-27 win over Texas A&M. It was back and forth from start to finish. Just when one team appeared to start to gain control of the game, the other fought right back. It was a very impressive road win for Mike Leach and his Red Raiders, to go into College Station, battle back like they did (and against the 12th man), and get the victory to improve to 4-1. It was entertaining from start to finish. I only wish some of those Big Ten matchups could've equaled the intensity, competitiveness, and entertainment that this one provided.

Biggest Disappointment of the Week
How bad is Arizona State against solid competition? Sure, they can beat Northern Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, but against California and Oregon these past two weeks? They've been outscored 97-34. Ouch! Following their 49-21 loss a week ago to Cal, I figured they'd be ticked off and want to make a statement against unbeaten Oregon. Well, they made that statement allright, "We can play with the patsies and average teams, but we can't do a dang thing against the better teams in the country." Who can they beat? Who knows. Stanford, I guess. But, Stanford is the only gimme in the Pac Ten this year, so every other week will be a battle for Koetner and the Sundevils.

Kudos
Rutgers and head coach Greg Schiano. They went from doormat to a club that's 5-0 and ranked for the first time since 1976! Schiano took the Scarlet Knights to a bowl game a season ago and are one win away from becoming bowl eligible yet again. They should achieve that and who knows, if they keep winning, they may have a shot at a rather prestigious bowl game and no, I'm not talking about a national championship. But, it's about time that a team and organization is rewarded with patience. That was the case in Blacksburg after Frank Beamer got off to a slow start and that appears to be the case at the State University of New Jersey.

No Kudos For You
Georgia. Yeah, the 'Dawgs are 5-0 and ranked in the top ten. But, they've got to do something about that offense. In the past two weeks, Georgia has scored a combined 28 points against the likes of Colorado and Mississippi, teams that have a combined 1-9 record between them! Georgia looks like a Tennessee from last year, where their biggest obstacle is deciding on who to start at quarterback on a weekly basis. If they continue to platoon quarterbacks and not show any certainty in that, they'll lose some games this year. They were very close to losing a couple these past two weeks to teams that are the doormats of the Big XII and SEC this year.

Player of the Week
Garrett Wolfe. Have you heard of this guy? Ohio State has. Even though Northern Illinois lost 35-12 to the Buckeyes, Wolfe still ran for over 170 yards and had over 100 yards receiving as well. This past week, in their 40-28 win over Ball State, Wolfe ran for 353 yards and three touchdowns. This doesn't even include two other long touchdown runs that were called back because of penalty. He may have eclipsed the 450 yard mark if those had counted. He may not receive the kind of pub that the Adrian Peterson's in the game due to his playing at Northern Illinois, but he's going to make an NFL team very happy next year. That's a certainty.

Surprise of the Week
I'm going with the 14-9 win by Georgia over Mississippi. With the problems Georgia had last week in their 14-13, last minute win against Colorado, I figured that they'd be better prepared and ready to go offensively against the Rebels. The Rebs aren't a team with a stellar defense. Their only win came at the expense of Memphis 28-25. They were blown out by Missouri 34-7.They lost 31-14 to Kentucky. They then got spanked by Wake Forest 27-3. They average to give up over 29 points a game in their first four. Georgia couldn't even muster half that. They started with quarterback Joe Cox who was very clutch a week ago against Colorado. Not far into the game, Marcus Stafford replaced Cox. Georgia can't keep doing this. They need to select a starting quarterback and stick with him. It would've been a truly embarrassing loss on Saturday night if the Rebels came back to beat the Bulldogs.

Nebraska Game (from an unbiased person's viewpoint)
Where do I start with this game? For the first 10-15 minutes, Nebraska looked great against the Jayhawks. They were up 17-0 and KU was only aiding to the cause, turning the ball over four times in the first half, including two times in the red zone. But even then, NU had only a 24-10 lead at the half. They should've been thankful. Kansas racked up over 270 yards in the first half and only put 10 points up on the scoreboard due to those four turnovers. Kansas didn't stop there, as they put up over 550 yards for the game and didn't turn the ball over in the 2nd half. Because of that, they rallied to a 25-24 lead before Nebraska and KU swapped scores to send the game into overtime tied 32-32. NU won after the first overtime 39-32. So, what can analysts say about this game and these teams?

Well, first off, the Nebraska offense is explosive. They executed three long touchdowns passes in the game. The offensive scheme and plan hasn't been consistent this year, though, and neither has the running game. The receivers haven't helped quarterback Zac Taylor at times with dropping the ball. The line has been solid at times and have experienced deja vu to last year's experiences at others. The constant thus far has been Zac Taylor. He was a little erratic on Saturday, but the pressure from Kansas and the drops by his receivers didn't help matters any. The line will have to give the guy time to throw the ball if he's to be consistently effective this year. Overall, the passing game has been solid for the Huskers, but the running game has been anything but consistent. Coach Bill Callahan has to show confidence (not as much as in the USC game, though) in the running backs and attempt to gain respect in both the running and passing game.

The big worries don't come on the offensive side of the ball, though. The worries have to come on defense. Kansas only scored 10 points in the first half, but that was due to their own mistakes. They garnered well over 550 yards in the game and put up 32 points on the Husker defense, who has allowed 60 points in their two games against major-conference opponents. They've blown out the three other teams they've faced (Louisiana Tech, Nicholls State, and Troy). Kansas successfully ran the football against the front seven, successfully threw the ball deep, and successfully completed the intermediate routes. Nebraska did put some pressure on the KU quarterback, but not enough to disrupt his timing or rhythm.

It's difficult to say where NU will go from here. They play Iowa State in Ames this upcoming weekend. The good news is the fact that Iowa State has a sub-par defense and has not played up to expectations this season. The bad news is the game is in Ames and ISU has not played up to expectations this season. McCarney and the Cyclones kept close a year ago in Lincoln and have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball to stay in this game as well. The key will be critical mistakes, balance on offense, and who wants the game more. ISU has shown anything but determination to go out on a weekly basis and beat their competition. They've beaten Toledo 45-43 in three overtimes, UNLV 16-10, and Division I-A Northern Iowa 28-27 this past weekend. They lost by 10 to Iowa and by 23 to Texas. With how mediocre the Big XII is overall, NU has as good a chance as anyone to represent the North, but as was seen this past week in their near loss to Kansas, they have just as good a chance to lose some conference games and not represent the North.

Solich Update
After Frank Solich's Ohio Bobcats got off to a perfect 2-0 start this year, including an impressive victory over Northern Illinois, they've lost three straight, falling to Bowling Green 21-9 on Saturday. This drops them to 1-1 in the conference and 2-3 overall.

Gill Update
Buffalo was off this weekend, so they remain 1-3. It is unknown at this time (by me anyway) of who their next opponent will be. I mean, it's Buffalo. Who really cares?

Rant of the Week: Announcers/Analysts/"Experts"
There was Keith Jackson who needed Dan Fouts to point out to him when a receiver caught a pass until this year. There was Beano Cook guaranteeing that ex-Notre Dame quarterback Ron Powlus would win three Heisman Trophies after his first game as a starter. Oh, what? He's still around? He and all eight of his chins? Hmmm... There's Craig James who likes to bash on any and all mid-major teams, even if they go unbeaten and beat major-conference opponents in their non-conference schedule. He also rides the SEC any and everywhere they go, regardless of how well the other conferences play or how disappointing some in the SEC are. Kirk Herbstriet likes to go on and on about his almamater Ohio State and will even go as far to dress his four kids up in Buckeye attire and show them off on the Gameday set. Brent Musberger will predict the outcome of a game based on the first play. If Iowa ran back the opening kickoff to the 30, he may say something like, "Oh, and it doesn't look like the Buckeyes will be able to stop the Hawkeyes today!" Lou Holtz knows something about bias. Whenever a Notre Dame or South Carolina game is the topic of discussion (especially if it's Notre Dame), Lou prays to Touchdown Jesus for a while while on the set. Mark May usually does any and everything possible to find a way to disagree with Lou and annoy the guy as much as possible. Lee Corso is now used as a silly little puppet. He's known for his wearing those helmets on the set to signify his predictions, but what'd they have him do in the Nebraska/USC game? Talk to a mascot? What? There are others I'm forgetting. I heard an announcer this past week call YAC yards: Yards after carry. He didn't just say that once. He repeated himself time and time again. Why would they have a separate category called "yards after carry" when that's what rushing yards are? That's because YAC stands for yards after contact (or yards after catch). During the Michigan State game, the announcer referred to Michigan State head coach (John L. Smith, for those who don't know) as John L. Williams the entire duration of the game. There was a John "Hot Rod" Williams who played for the Cleveland Cavaliers in basketball. There was even a tailback who played professional football for the Seattle Seahawks who actually had the name John L. Williams. Why are they called "experts" in the first place? How do some of these guys get the announcing gigs? Beano, Lou, and Musberger are...aging...to be nice, so perhaps they won't be doing this too much longer. Perhaps then, Trev Alberts can come back to the set. Alberts was definitely better than any of the before-mentioned "experts" and analysts. Even though the guy played at Nebraska, he was straight-forward and un-biased. There needs to be a bit more of that, as I see plenty of bias by these analysts, isn't that right Jaws? Oh, whoops, that's the NFL.

My Top 119 Poll
Because there's so much parity in college football and just about any team can lose on any given week, I decided to use a formula that I felt could accurately portray a team's value. As you'll notice, there is a number to the right of every team listed from 1-119. What I did was make a team's winning percentage, their opponent's winning percentage, and their average margin of victory all factors in calculating the formula. I moved the decimal to the right two spaces when it came to the winning percentages and I then summed all three numbers. For example, Ohio State is 5-0 and therefore has a winning percentage of 1.000. I move the decimal over and that makes for a point value of 100.0. The opponents they've faced thus far have a winning percentage of .696, which then equals 69.6. Finally, their average margin of victory is 22.6 points per game, so I add those three numbers up: 100.0 + 69.6 + 22.6 and come to 192.2, which is good for first place in the nation.

1. Ohio State: 192.2
2. USC: 182.5
3. Florida: 181.7
4. Louisville: 175.9
5. Michigan: 175.6
6. Auburn: 170.4
7. Oklahoma: 163.9
8. Notre Dame: 159.8
9. Oregon: 159.2
9. West Virginia: 159.2
11. Boise State: 158.8
12. LSU: 158.4
13. Tennessee: 157.3
14. Clemson: 155.5
15. Rutgers: 154.5
16. Texas: 150.6
17. Texas Tech: 150.2
18. Nebraska: 145.7
19. California: 143.8
20. Missouri: 143.4
21. Georgia: 142.8
22. Iowa: 141.4
23. Texas A&M: 140.5
24. Wake Forest: 139.3
24. Washington: 139.3
26. Pittsburgh: 139.0
27. Georgia Tech: 138.6
28. Wisconsin: 137.7
29. Oklahoma State: 137.1
30. Boston College: 132.8
31. Virginia Tech: 131.2
32. Florida State: 129.9
33. Southern Mississippi: 129.7
34. TCU: 129.5
35. UCLA: 128.0
36. BYU: 125.6
37. Houston: 125.2
38. Alabama 124.9
39. Tulsa: 124.8
40. Washington State: 122.6
41. Air Force: 121.1
42. Penn State: 120.4
43. Arkansas: 119.1
44. Navy: 118.7
45. Michigan State: 118.2
46. Minnesota: 116.2
47. Western Michigan: 115.8
48. South Carolina: 115.2
49. Miami (Florida): 114.9
50. Purdue: 114.8
51. Maryland: 114.3
52. Kentucky: 112.0
53. Syracuse: 111.8
54. Oregon State: 110.3
55. Hawaii: 109.4
56. Connecticut: 109.3
57. Nevada: 108.7
58. Arizona State: 107.8
59. Utah: 107.4
60. Kansas: 106.9
61. South Florida: 105.7
62. Northern Illinois: 103.3
63. San Jose State: 102.6
64. Colorado State: 101.6
65. SMU: 101.2
66. Iowa State: 101.0
67. Kansas State: 100.8
67. Ohio: 100.8
69. Fresno State: 100.0
70. Kent State: 97.6
71. Bowling Green: 95.5
72. Illinois: 93.6
72. UTEP: 93.6
74. Arizona: 92.7
75. Baylor: 92.2
76. Vanderbilt: 92.1
77. Middle Tennessee State: 91.8
78. North Carolina State: 90.1
79. Central Michigan: 90.0
79. Virginia: 90.0
81. Toledo: 89.2
82. New Mexico: 88.6
83. Cincinnati: 88.2
84. Louisiana-Lafayette: 85.6
85. Mississippi: 85.2
86. East Carolina: 83.1
87. UAB: 83.0
88. Army: 82.8
89. Akron: 81.8
89. Arkansas State: 81.8
91. New Mexico State: 80.4
92. Indiana: 77.7
93. Rice: 75.6
94. Wyoming: 74.2
95. Central Florida: 74.1
96. North Carolina: 72.0
97. Marshall: 70.1
98. Mississippi State: 67.1
99. Buffalo: 65.5
100. Tulane: 64.5
101. Troy: 62.6
102. UNLV: 62.3
103. North Texas: 60.3
104. Idaho: 59.1
105. Northwestern: 58.6
106. Colorado: 58.1
107. Louisiana Tech: 57.2
108. Louisiana-Monroe: 54.7
109. Ball State: 54.0
110. Florida International: 53.7
111. Stanford: 52.5
112. San Diego State: 48.4
113. Memphis: 48.3
114. Miami (Ohio): 43.8
115. Florida Atlantic: 38.4
116. Duke: 33.2
117. Eastern Michigan: 24.9
118. Utah State: 18.6
119. Temple: 15.9

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