Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Week 13 College Football Newsletter

The Bonehead Call of the Week
These go to announcer Brent Musberger for some of his commentary during the Notre Dame/USC game on Saturday night. First off, the guy compared Irish quarterback Brady Quinn to Atlanta Falcons and ex-Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Vick. I'm sorry, but comparing their foot speed would be like comparing Roger Dorn's to Willie Mays Hayes' from the flick "Major League." Secondly and more importantly, Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, and Bob Davie brought up the possibility of Michigan and Notre Dame playing a rematch in the Rose Bowl if USC should win their final game against UCLA. Musberger claimed that regardless of Saturday night's outcome, Notre Dame deserved to play in the Rose Bowl against Michigan. What was his reasoning? Some 1920 history lesson involving Knute Rockne. I'm sorry, but Michigan whooped Notre Dame 47-21 earlier in the year at South Bend. What right does the Irish have in heading to Pasadena with their two losses coming by the combined score of 91-45? Outside of those two teams (Michigan and USC), Notre Dame's ten other opponents are a combined 54-62 (.466). Other opponents are much more worthy of potentially facing off with 11-1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Even though I'm not in favor of a rematch between the Wolverines and Buckeyes in the title game, at least the two teams played a fairly even game for the majority of the sixty minutes. Michigan simply took the Irish out to the barn for a brutal beating. Sorry Brent, but not even history should be on the Irish's side this time.

The Bonehead Play of the Week
Even though Missouri ended up winning the football game against Kansas, they are awarded the bonehead play of the week. The Tigers were already up 20-10 in the third quarter when quarterback Chase Daniel hooked up on a slant route that was covered man-on-man. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, that one man was what separated the receiver from the end zone and he was behind the ball and the receiver. The wideout wasn't even touched on his way to the end zone for what would be an 80-yard touchdown reception. But, hold on a minute. There's a flag on the play. When the receiver was at the Jayhawk 20-yard line and running full steam ahead toward the end zone, a teammate of his late the smack down on a Jayhawk who was fifteen yards away from the receiver. He was called for a personal foul, the touchdown was taken off the scoreboard, and Mizzou was backed up fifteen yards. They didn't convert on the next down and were forced to punt. On the ensuing drive, KU ran the ball right down the Tigers' throats and closed the gap to 20-17.

The Conference Yo of the Week
SEC. Like great football games? Look no further than the SEC this past weekend. LSU "upset" then 10-1 Arkansas 31-26 to move up to #5 in the BCS. Mississippi won the Egg Bowl against in-state rival Mississippi State 20-17. Tennessee squeaked by Kentucky 17-12. Georgia won a tough one in the hedges against Georgia Tech 15-12. Florida found a way to upend the pesky Seminoles of Florida State 21-14. South Carolina upset Tommy Bowden and the Clemson Tigers 31-28. SEC finished the week 6-3 with Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Alabama having already completed their regular seasons. The three non-conference wins were against teams with a combined record of 23-13 (.639).

The Conference Yo No of the Week
ACC. Virginia and Virginia Tech wasn't much of the game as the Hokies shutout the Cavaliers 17-0. Georgia Tech lost to 7-4 (now 8-4) Georgia 15-12. Florida State fought back from a 14-0 deficit, but found a way to lose 21-14 to the Florida Gators. Wake Forest pulled away from Maryland late to win 38-24. Miami (Florida) became bowl eligible with an upset win over Boston College 17-14. East Carolina defeated NC State 21-16 to send Chuck Amato packing. Clemson fell to in-state rival South Carolina 31-28. Finally, in perhaps the best game of the weekend in the conference between teams with a combined record of 3-21 (.125), North Carolina outlasted winless Duke with a 45-44 win. The conference finished 4-8, losing all four of their non-conference games.

Game of the Week
There are twelve games (at least) that deserve some recognition. Here's the rivalry week special countdown of the top dozen games of the week.

12. Miami (Florida) 17 Boston College 14- On the 22nd Anniversary of Doug Flutie's miracle pass, Flutie was a member of the announcing team only to witness the favored Eagles get beat up front to send Larry Coker off with one final win in his tenure to make the 'Canes bowl eligible.

11. South Florida 24 West Virginia 19- The Bulls played with a level of tenacity that the Mountaineers couldn't match until it was too late. Whether the 'Neers were looking ahead to next week's showdown with Rutgers is debatable, but this is one game in which they didn't appear to want it as much as their opponent.

10. Texas A&M 12 Texas 7- Like hard hits? Defense? This was the game for you, but not if your name is Colt McCoy. That guy's been roughed up in his past two games. His body may be thanking the Sooners for coming through on Saturday so he doesn't have to gear up until the bowl game.

9. Florida 21 Florida State 14- The Gators appeared to be on their way to cruising after getting out to a 14-0 lead, but the Seminoles fought back and wouldn't go away. It took a late 4th quarter score to vault the Gators to the hard-earned victory.

8. Cincinnati 26 UConn 23- Unlike many other Big East clubs, Cincinnati didn't allow the letdown week virus hinder them too greatly. In potentially Mark Dantonio's final game with the Bearcats, Cincy fought back for a tough road win against a pesky UConn squad.

7. Oklahoma 27 Oklahoma State 21- Even though the game was not as high-flying as I had anticipated, it still came down to the last play in the game and in a rivalry matchup like this, that's all I really want to see.

6. LSU 31 Arkansas 26- It was hard-nosed and low-scoring through the first half. Then it went from a classic defensive SEC duel to a Pac-10 shootout. Arkansas now has to gear up for the SEC title game against Florida while LSU sits pretty at #5 in the BCS.

5. Georgia 15 Georgia Tech 12- Unlike the last game I mentioned, this one played out like a SEC dogfight for sixty minutes. The key question was, which defense could force the quarterback into making the most stupid decisions. Georgia's defense outdid Tech's in that regard, forcing Reggie Ball to fumble the football and the 'Dawgs took it in for six. They also forced him into throwing an interception and making a number of other bonehead plays.

4. Tennessee 17 Kentucky 12- The Vols are lucky to head on to bowl season with a 9-3 record following this game. Kentucky had two opportunities inside the ten-yard line in the 4th quarter, but scored zero points in those two drives. Even two field goals would've vaulted them out to a lead.

3. Oregon State 30 Oregon 28- The Civil War was anything but civil in this matchup. As can be expected, it being a Pac-10 matchup, this game played nothing like the before-mentioned Georgia/Georgia Tech matchup. It went back and forth throughout the second half until Oregon State knocked home the eventual game-winning field goal in the final couple minutes.

2. Hawaii 42 Purdue 35- Hawaii shutout Purdue for the first thirty minutes and took a 17-0 lead into the second half until the Boilermakers finally woke up. Purdue then scored 35 of the next 45 points to take a 35-27 lead before Hawaii put on a late run to win their 10th game of the season. Purdue has one win against bowl eligible teams and has yet to beat a team with an above .500 record.

1. South Carolina 31 Clemson 28- Lou Holtz was probably going nuts over this win, especially since Notre Dame got blown out for the second time this season. There were so many sudden changes in momentum throughout the contest that I'm surprised coaches on both sidelines weren't being carted off because of heart attacks. Carolina took a 31-28 lead late in the game on a field goal and Clemson had a chance to tie it up, but on the second to last play, the Gamecocks sacked Will Proctor and the Tigers' kicker missed it wide right (or left, if you're in his shoes).

Biggest Disappointment of the Week
Boise State 38 Nevada 7. Nevada came into this home game winners of eight of their last nine games and ranked first in all the country in turnover margin. It had all the ingredients of a potential upset which would knock Boise State from the rankings of the unbeaten and a BCS game opportunity. But to say the Wolfpack was sloppy would be quite the understatement. They turned the ball over regularly which put the always potent Broncos' offense at the cusp of the red zone at the outset of their drive. Last I saw (in the first half mind you), Nevada was at -3 in turnover margin for the game. BSU took advantage of all the mistakes and Nevada paid dearly. Did I pick Boise to win? Yeah, but by one score. Never did I imagine this game getting so out of hand.

Kudos
Rivalry games. This has to be my favorite week in college football. Records play little to no factor in these games. If there's one game these teams circle before the season starts, it's that of their rival. Many did not disappoint this weekend, either. Texas A&M upset Texas 12-7. LSU beat Arkansas 31-26. Oregon State won the Civil War battle over Oregon 30-28. Steve Spurrier and South Carolina upset Clemson 31-28. Florida outlasted Florida State 21-14. Tennessee caught a few breaks in their 17-12 victory over Kentucky. Ole Miss found a way to win the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State 20-17. Oklahoma found a way to win in Stillwater over Oklahoma State by the score of 27-21. Georgia and Georgia Tech got rough for sixty minutes, with the Bulldogs coming out with a big 15-12 win at home. BYU beat Utah on a last second touchdown pass by John Beck 33-31. There was more intensity this past weekend of the season than I've witnessed in any other week this year. If there ever was a playoff, many of the games would be similar to what I witnessed over the weekend. Many games this weekend lived up to their hype (outside of the primetime game in L.A., of course) and depicted what rivalry games are all about.

No Kudos
Fair weather media. All of you know I've been against a rematch between Michigan and Ohio State for the national title from the start. Whether one wants to agree with me or not is debatable, but at least I've stayed consistent. The same cannot be said for the national media. Directly following the Michigan/Ohio State game two weekends ago, all I heard from the majority of "experts" and "analysts" was that Michigan and Ohio State were the two best teams in the country, they didn't want the game to end, and wanted to see a rematch between the two clubs. Following USC's 44-24 win over Notre Dame on Saturday night, I heard anything but that from the very same "experts" and "analysts." The same guys who said Michigan was definitely the 2nd best team in the country following their 3-point loss to Ohio State were saying that USC was the second best team in the country and that Michigan should get ready for the Rose Bowl. What, if Florida beats Arkansas on Saturday, will they stand up and claim that the Gators are the 2nd best team in the country? We have the right to change our minds from time to time, but so quickly? Why? What does a 44-24 win by USC over Notre Dame prove over a week prior? Let's not forget that Michigan pounded the Irish, as well. So, how in the world can we leapfrog USC ahead of Michigan after they beat a team in a similar fashion that the Wolverines did? That doesn't make any sense to me. If the guys wanted to say that if USC wins out, they're the most deserving, then that's fine by me. But for them to flip-flop over a win against a club that Michigan handled similarly doesn't make any logical sense. What if USC doesn't beat UCLA handily next Saturday, will they flip-flop again? Make up your minds guys. The thing I'd be most frightened of if I was USC would be not knowing if the media will flip-flop again or not following their game against UCLA on Saturday.

Player of the Week
Dwayne Jarrett- wide receiver- USC. This pick is not based on numbers, but upon the overall performance I witnessed on Saturday night in the Trojans' 44-24 victory over Notre Dame. Jarrett made NFL-type catches all game long to help quarterback John David Booty move the offense. Did anyone see that one-handed grab Jarrett made along the sideline? While I stick to my previous claim in the year that Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson is the nation's best receiver. I will now say that Dwayne Jarrett is the second best in the country. On the day, he caught seven balls for 132 yards and three touchdowns. If not for Notre Dame's late score, Jarrett would've outscored the Irish all by his lonesome. Some players this past weekend may have put up more gaudy numbers than Jarrett, but nobody was as valuable in as big a game like this to their club as #8 was to USC.

Surprise of the Week
Missouri 42 Kansas 17. Missouri has been down and out of late, losers of four of their last five coming into this game, while Kansas was coming off a big 39-20 win over Kansas State. Mizzou shot themselves in the foot a couple times with stupid mistakes (see the bonehead play of the week for an example) and Kansas closed the gap to within three at 20-17 garnering all the momentum with that score. But Missouri went on to score the final 22 points in the game to rout the Jayhawks. Missouri had been playing so poorly of late, that I wasn't even expecting them to win this game, let alone pull away by 25 at the end. It seems that when things have gone wrong for the Tigers this year, the mistakes happen in bunches, but they managed to limit those errors and redeem themselves unlike in weeks past.


Nebraska Game (from a non-biased person's viewpoint)
While I was unable to see the second quarter, I will make do with what I viewed/heard and what I remember.

First off, hats off to Colorado for their first half performance. As I've always said, in rivalry games, records are irrelevant. Colorado illustrated that point for the first 40 minutes. If not for the trick play by the Huskers to put them up 14-7, CU could've very well gone into the half tied at seven a piece. But, Colorado was simply Colorado on this day. They ran the ball very efficiently at times and forgot how to run at others. As usual, their passing game was, how do I put this nicely? Off. As usual, their defense was tough for a while, but got worn down in the second half. This was just another day at the park for the Buffaloes.

For Nebraska, senior quarterback Zac Taylor was on the money in his final home game. Tailback Brandon Jackson was efficient in the backfield. Even though Taylor's final numbers were rather impressive, his receivers still found a way to drop some passes. Terrance Nunn is extremely talented, but needs to learn how to hang on to the football. On defense, Nebraska gave up large chunks of yardage against the run for the first 40 minutes, but kept CU's offense in check the rest of the way through.

What's there to say? Both teams came ready to play their rival on Saturday, but the better team came out victorious. NU got fancy on a few occasions with trick plays and for the most part, those trick plays paid dividends for the Huskers. Who knows what the score would've been without the trickery. Either way, the creativity gives next week's opponent, Oklahoma, a few more things to worry about.

Nebraska better watch out in Boulder next year, though. Up 30-14 with under a minute to go, Bill Callahan called for a toss play when he knew darn well CU was expecting the Huskers to run it right up the middle to run the clock out. The end result? A touchdown to go up 37-14. While I personally don't care one way or another if a team "runs up the score," because I say, hey, it's the defense's job to stop the opposing offense. If they can't get it done, it's their own dang fault! While I say that, I know darn well that CU coach Dan Hawkins and his returning players will remember that late score and it'll linger in their minds until they are able to take the field again next year in Boulder.

What's next for Nebraska? No, not a rematch with Texas, as the Longhorns dropped their final two games of the season. Oklahoma, who squeaked by in-state rival Oklahoma State 27-21 in Stillwater on Saturday. Personally, if I was Nebraska, I would've rather played Texas again than OU. NU almost beat the Longhorns the first time, falling 22-20 in an odd series of events that ended the game. Texas lost a shootout to Kansas State and then fell to Texas A&M in a defensive slugfest. I would've been pretty confident going into a game against Texas if I was Nebraska. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is the hottest team in the Big XII. They enter the title game at 10-2 and someone should put an atstrict by that record, because we all remember that dropping the soap experience they had against Oregon. They lost last year's starting quarterback Rhett Bomar just before the season started and then lost star tailback Adrian Peterson a few weeks ago. What has OU done since then? They haven't lost. Their running game is still solid (just ask Okie State) and their defense is playing the best of anyone in the conference over the past few weeks. While it's still a winnable game for Nebraska, I'm definitely not as confident rolling into this contest against the hottest team in the conference in Oklahoma as opposed to a beat-up and struggling Texas squad.

What does Nebraska have to do to win the game against OU? First and foremost, they have to win battles up front. Remember when Zac Taylor was sacked nine times against them last year? NU can't let that happen again and expect to win. The Huskers have also struggled against the run at times this year. That's Oklahoma's strong suit on offense. Nebraska needs to limit OU's carries and yards per carry if they want to win the game. Offensively, Nebraska's tailbacks can't be careless with the football as they've had a tendency to do the past few weeks and the receivers need to hang on to the football when Taylor fires the ball in there. Callahan also needs to mix the plays up and attempt to attack OU's defense with a balanced offense to hopefully get them off balance a little. OU has a solid defense, so if they force the Huskers into being one-dimensional, it could be a long day for Taylor in the backfield. Taylor has been very efficient this year, but he needs help from the guys around him. If the O-Line protects him long enough in the passing game, opens enough holes for the tailbacks to penetrate through, and the skill players make a minimal amount of mistakes, the offense should perform well. If the Huskers' D can limit the Sooners' yards per carry and prevent the deep ball in the passing game, all should be well.

It makes for an interesting matchup. It's still hard for me to believe that Oklahoma is playing as well as they are without Adrian Peterson. If they go on to win the Big XII title without their stud tailback, head coach Bob Stoops will be a shoo-in as Big XII coach of the year. Even if they lose, I'd probably reward him with the honor. In either scenario, Nebraska took another step in the right direction this season and even in a loss, shouldn't hold their heads down at all.

Solich Update
Well, ladies and gentlemen, perhaps Frankie's boozing incident a year ago was the foreshadowing of a celebration to come for the former Nebraska coach. Following this past week's 34-24 win over Miami (Ohio), Solich and his Bobcats are 9-3 (7-1 in conference) and moving on to the MAC title game to face 8-4 Central Michigan on Thursday night. Congrats to Solich.

Gill Update
Gill's Buffalo Bulls closed the season this past week with a 55-28 loss to the before-mentioned Central Michigan Chippewas to finish with a record of 2-10 (1-7 in conference).

Rant of the Week: Notre Dame
I'm growing rather weary regarding the neverending hype which surrounds Notre Dame. In years' past, I wouldn't be so hard on the Irish due to their usually nightmarish schedule. There have been years when Notre Dame has faced off against the likes of: Michigan, USC, Boston College, Florida State, Tennessee, Miami (Florida), BYU, etcetera, to go along with the likes of Georgia Tech, UCLA, Navy, Purdue, and Michigan State. This year that's not the case, though. In Notre Dame's twelve games this season, they've faced off against seven bowl contenders (all with winning records). These teams include: Georgia Tech (9-3), Penn State (8-4), Michigan (11-1), Purdue (8-5), UCLA (6-5), Navy (8-3), and USC (10-1). Georgia Tech can be stopped if Calvin Johnson is limited in his receptions. Penn State has beaten one team with a winning record all year. Purdue has yet to beat a team with a winning record. UCLA is stingy, but much like Georgia Tech in that they can't hurt you offensively very often. Navy is the most respectable of the academies on the gridiron, but doesn't have the size and speed to matchup with teams like Notre Dame. In Notre Dame's two lone games where they were matched up against one of the better teams in the country, they got blown out 47-21 and 44-24 by Michigan and USC. That's a combined 91-45 (average: 45.5-22.5). To go along with the seven games I've already mentioned, ND has faced the likes of: Michigan State (4-8), Stanford (1-10), North Carolina (3-9), Air Force (4-7), and Army (3-8). Michigan State has average talent, but has had a way of collapsing under John L. Smith. North Carolina played a rather brutal schedule, but that doesn't dismiss the fact that they only won three games against teams with 3 combined wins. Most of their losses were in blowout fashion. Air Force provided an early test for Tennessee, but showed that it may have been a fluke, as they have played anything but that well the rest of the way through the season. Army is the worst of the three academies. Finally, Stanford has stunk it up since week one of the season. They have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation, but again, they're 1-10 and the majority of those losses weren't pretty from a Cardinal fan's perspective. If you exclude USC's and Michigan's records, Notre Dame's opponents are a combined 54-62 (.466). I don't want to hear how Notre Dame may play in a rematch against 11-1 Michigan. They don't deserve that opportunity. If USC wins next week against UCLA and goes on to play Ohio State for a right at the national championship, I can think of several teams who'd be more deserving of a Rose Bowl bid. Let me count the ways or teams, in this case: Florida, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn, Oklahoma (if they beat Nebraska), Boise State, Louisville, West Virginia (if they beat Rutgers), Rutgers, among others. I just listed eight teams right there and those were the first eight that popped into my mind. I'm sure I could come up with other more deserving teams. Notre Dame has a porous defense, especially against the pass. Their offense is solid, but fails to live up to their billing against good defenses. Just look at the games against: Georgia Tech (14 points), UCLA (20 points), Michigan (21 points), and USC (24 points). In those four games, they went 2-2, scoring a combined 79 points (average: 19.8). Notre Dame deserves a Gator Bowl invite, but nothing more than that. I don't care about their rich history or tradition. Bowl games and the prestige which comes with them should invite teams the most deserving, teams who have earned their spot in that game throughout the course of the season. Notre Dame's resume' is solid for a bowl game, but as far as I see it, not too impressive when it comes to a potential BCS bowl invite.

Inside the Numbers: Conference Strength
Many arguments flare up this time of year, especially in regard to who is most deserving of going to the national title game against unbeaten Ohio State. There are some quality one-loss teams left in the field along with an undefeated mid-major club in Boise State. Who's the second best team? How can we ever be 100% sure one way or the other? I think those two words are misused often times. It's not the BCS's job to pick the two "best" teams to play in the title game as many like to suggest. It's the BCS's job to select the two most deserving teams, the two teams who have most earned their way to play in the title game. Sometimes the second best team may not be as deserving as another. They may not have earned their way as much as another. Many like to argue about the major conferences and the strength (or lack there of) of each in comparison to the others. I briefly wrote about this a few weeks ago, but thought I'd get even more in-depth this time around. What conference has the best winning percentage against bowl eligible and above .500 teams? What conference has played the toughest non-conference and overall schedule? What percentage of the conference is bowl eligble and what percentage of it has a record above .500? The true determinant of a conference's strength is in its depth and in how it performs against major notable programs. That's what the bowl season is all about. You're not going to see too many conference rematches come bowl time ::knocks on wood::. There aren't going to be Florida/Auburn matchups or Wisconsin/Minnesota rematches. No, conferences battle it out with one another during the bowl season to potentially hold bragging rights into the off-season that they were the strongest conference due to these big victories against major notable programs. One or two teams at the top don't make for a great conference. Depth matters. Why? How valid can those one or two teams be at the top if they've beaten on teams at or below the .500 mark all year? How valid is Notre Dame's 10-2 mark this season, in that they've beaten five dreadful opponents and lost to their only to great opponents by the combined score of 91-45? Not very, as far as I'm concerned. So, here you have it. I will attempt to delve into this as much as possible. It's common for us to hold personal conference biases, many times based on where we're located or who we root for. I urge everyone to put their biases aside and read through some very eye-popping numbers. Hopefully, it can give some a more open perspective on things.

Let's start with strength of schedule. The Pac-10 has played the toughest non-conference schedule. Their opponents have gone 192-168 (.533). The ACC is second, with their non-conference opponents going 253-323 (.439). The Big Ten is third, their opponents have gone a combined 189-295 (.390). The Big East ranks just behind it- their opponents have gone 185-297 (.384). The Big XII is not far behind at 220-357 (.381). Finally, in terms of non-conference opponents, the SEC finishes dead last at 205-368 (.358). In overall schedule, again, the Pac-10 is first, their opponents going a combined 742-617 (.546). The SEC finishes second this time, their opponents have gone 917-809 (.531). The Big East is third- their opponents have gone a combined 555-520 (.516). The Big Ten is not far behind at 823-777 (.514). The ACC ranks fifth amongst conference overall strength of schedule. Their opponents are currently 869-858 (.503). Finally, the Big XII ranks last at 868-861 (.502).

I will now rank teams based upon the percentage of clubs within a conference that are bowl eligible and also teams within the conference who have winning percentages of over .500 (one can be 6-6 and be bowl eligible). Eight out of ten teams are bowl eligible in the Pac-10 (Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, USC, and Washington State), so they lead the way at a clip of 80.0%. There are three conferences tied for second at 75.0%: Big XII with nine of twelve teams being eligible (Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech), Big East with six of eight teams being bowl eligible (Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, and West Virginia), and the SEC with nine of twelve teams being bowl eligible (Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, and Tennessee). The ACC ranks fifth, having 66.7% of their teams bowl eligible, or eight of twelve (Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami (Florida), Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest). The Big Ten ranks last with seven of eleven or 63.6% or teams being bowl eligible (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin). The SEC ranks first in having eight of twelve teams with a winning record or 66.7% (Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, and Tennessee). The Big East ranks second, as five of eight teams in the conference or 62.5% of the clubs have winning records (Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, and West Virginia). The Pac-10 is third, as six of ten or 60% of the teams in the conference have a winning record (Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, and USC). The Big XII ranks fourth, as seven of twelve or 58.3% of the teams in the conference hold winning records (Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech). The ACC ranks fifth with six of twelve or 50.0% of their teams holding winning records at this time (Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest). Finally, the Big Ten ranks last, with five of eleven or 45.5% of their teams holding winning records at this juncture (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin).

I'm next going to look at the conferences' winning percentages against bowl eligible teams as well as teams with winning records. Again, the Pac-10 ranks first, as they have posted a 40-48 (.455) record against bowl eligible teams. The Big East is second, posting a 24-31 (.436) record against such teams. The SEC is third, going 38-50 (.432) against bowl eligibles. The Big XII ranks fourth in that category, as they have gone 39-53 (.424). The ACC is fifth, going 33-56 (.385) against bowl eligible teams. Finally, the Big Ten is last, posting a 28-45 (.384) record. The Pac-10 also leads the rankings in their record against teams with winning records, going 29-40 (.420). The Big East is again second, going 17-27 (.386). The SEC is third again, going 29-48 (.377). The Big XII is fourth, having gone 26-45 (.366) against such teams. The ACC is fifth, going 23-49 (.319) and finally, the Big Ten is last, with a record of 15-40 (.273) against teams with a winning record.

I will next look at the balance of the conferences and their depth. I will do that by excluding the top two teams from every conference to see how much they skew the conference's numbers. I will exclude Louisville and Rutgers from the Big East, Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten, Florida and Arkansas from the SEC, USC and California from the Pac-10, Oklahoma and Nebraska from the Big XII, and finally, Boston College and Virginia Tech from the ACC. If I exclude these teams and their records against bowl eligible teams and winning clubs, the Big XII ranks first with their left over record against bowl eligibles being 29-48 (.377). The Pac-10 is second with a record of 26-44 (.371). The SEC is third with a record of 25-47 (.347). The ACC ranks fourth with a record of 23-52 (.307). The Big East ranks fifth with a record of 11-29 (.275). Finally, the Big Ten ranks last with a record of 15-44 (.254). When excluding these teams, the conference with the best winning percentage against clubs with winning records is the Pac-10, as they have gone 19-37 (.339). The SEC is 2nd, going 20-45 (.308). The Big XII is third, having gone 18-41 (.305). The ACC is 4th, having gone 14-45 (.237). The Big East is fifth- they've gone 7-25 (.219). Again, the Big Ten is ranked last, having gone 6-39 (.133). I will now only look at the two teams I excluded from each conference in the previous rankings to calculate how large of a percentage the teams make up in the conference's wins against bowl eligible opponents and their wins against teams with records above .500. Oklahoma and Nebraska only make up 25.6% of the Big XII's win against bowl eligible teams to rank them first. Florida and Arkansas make up 34.2% of the SEC's wins against bowl eligibles to rank them second. Boston College and Virginia Tech make up 34.3% of the ACC's wins against potential bowlers to rank them third. USC and California have won 35.0% of the Pac-10's games against bowl eligible teams to rank the conference fourth. Michigan and Ohio State have made up 46.4% of the Big Ten's wins against bowl eligible teams to rank them fifth. Finally, Louisville and Rutgers have made up 54.2% of the Big East's wins against bowl eligibles to rank them last amongst major conferences. Nebraska and Oklahoma have only won 30.8% of the Big XII's victories against teams with winning records to rank the conference first again. The SEC is again second, with Florida and Arkansas winning 31.0% of the conference's games against teams with winning records. The Pac-10 is third, USC and California making up 34.5% of the conference's wins against teams above .500. Virginia Tech and Boston College have won 39.1% of the ACC conference's games against teams with winning records to rank the conference fourth. The Big East is fifth, with Rutgers and Louisville winning 58.8% of the conference's games against teams with an above .500 record. Finally, the Big Ten finishes last, as Ohio State and Michigan have made up 60.0% of the conference's wins against teams better than .500.

Finally, I have averaged the conference's wins against bowl eligible teams and winning clubs by the number of teams in conference to calculate the average number of wins per conference in both categories. The Pac-10 ranks first against bowl eligible teams with an average of 4.0 wins per team. The Big XII is second, hauling in an average of 3.3 wins per club. The SEC is third, with an average of 3.2 wins. The Big East is 4th, raking in an average of 3.0 wins. The ACC is 5th, each team winning an average of 2.9 games against bowl eligible teams. In last again is the Big Ten, who have averaged to win 2.5 games against bowl eligible programs. The Pac-10 is fist in the average number of wins each team has against opponents with a winning record with 2.9. The SEC is 2nd with 2.4. The Big XII is third with 2.2. The Big East is ranked fourth with an average of 2.1. The ACC is fifth with an average of 1.9 victories per team against opponents with a winning record. Finally, the Big Ten averages 1.4 such wins per club.

There were twelve total categories and to my surprise, the Pac-10 finished first. I tallied conferences numbers based on their ranking, so like in golf, the lower the number, the better the score. Here are the final results:

1. Pac-10 (20: 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1)
2. SEC (31: 6, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3, 2, 3, 3)
3. Big XII (36: 5, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 3)
4. Big East (44: 4, 3, 2, 2, 5, 5, 2, 2, 6, 5, 4, 4)
5. ACC (52: 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5)
6. Big Ten (66: 3, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 6, 6)

If one wants to compute things differently, they could tally up the rankings and power points of each major conference team and come to a power ranking average. This is how the conferences rank, first according to their actual ranking and second, according to their power numbers. Keep in mind that the power scores represent three major factors: 1) the team's record, 2) their opponents' record, and 3) their average margin of victory. The value of the numbers are displayed as I just wrote them, starting with the team's own winning percentage and moving on down from there.

1. Big East (38.9: 2, 8, 13, 39, 41, 52, 75, 80)
2. SEC (42.2: 6, 7, 14, 18, 19, 33, 35, 50, 57, 84, 87, 96)
3. Big XII (50.3: 15, 17, 20, 24, 30, 42, 42, 56, 66, 90, 97, 105)
4. Pac-10 (50.5: 3, 21, 32, 45, 45, 52, 59, 65, 69, 114)
5. Big Ten (51.1: 1, 5, 10, 27, 51, 52, 62, 77, 81, 92, 104)
6. ACC (54.3: 12, 22, 25, 26, 27, 44, 47, 64, 73, 91, 103, 117)

1. Big East (122.9: 167.8, 153.8, 148.9, 117.0, 116.3, 108.5, 87.4, 83.2)
2. SEC (120.9: 162.0, 159.8, 148.3, 143.6, 142.5, 122.8, 121.9, 109.6, 106.4, 82.6, 79.8, 71.9)
3. Big Ten (113.5: 176.6, 164.9, 150.0, 129.7, 108.6, 108.5, 104.3, 85.0, 83.1, 73.6, 64.6)
4. Pac-10 (112.03: 167.3, 138.1, 123.6, 114.7, 114.7, 108.5, 105.8, 102.3, 95.6, 49.7)
5. Big XII (112.025: 147.7, 146.7, 139.8, 135.5, 128.5, 116.1, 116.1, 106.7, 98.6, 76.0, 70.4, 62.2)6. ACC (106.5: 149.0, 137.0, 135.1, 132.2, 129.7, 115.6, 112.4, 102.7, 88.9, 74.5, 67.4, 33.9)

If one wants to delve into things even further, we could average the conferences' rankings from the three sets of standings above.

1. Big East (6: 4, 1, 1)
1. SEC (6: 2, 2, 2)
3. Pac-10 (9: 1, 4, 4)
4. Big XII (11: 3, 3, 5)
5. Big Ten (14: 6, 5, 3)
6. ACC (17: 5, 6, 6)

If one believes that the two sets of rankings I just mentioned are too similar and shouldn't be noted separately, then we could average the conferences' rankings in those two sets and make that equivalent to one set and then average that number with the first set of rankings. The results would be as follows.

1. SEC (4: 2, 2)
2. Big East (5: 1, 4)
2. Pac-10 (5: 1, 4)
4. Big XII (7: 3, 4)
5. Big Ten (10: 6, 4)
6. ACC (11: 5, 6)

My Top 119 Poll
1. Ohio State (12-0): 176.6
2. Louisville (10-1): 167.8
3. USC (10-1): 167.3
4. Boise State (12-0): 166.8
5. Michigan (11-1): 164.9
6. Florida (11-1): 162.0
7. LSU (10-2): 159.8
8. Rutgers (10-1): 153.8
9. BYU (10-2): 150.4
10. Wisconsin (11-1): 150.0
11. Hawaii (10-2): 149.3
12. Virginia Tech (10-2): 149.0
13. West Virginia (9-2): 148.9
14. Auburn (10-2): 148.3
15. Texas (9-3): 147.7
16. Notre Dame (10-2): 147.3
17. Oklahoma (10-2): 146.7
18. Arkansas (10-2): 143.6
19. Tennessee (9-3): 142.5
20. Nebraska (9-3): 139.8
21. California (8-3): 138.1
22. Clemson (8-4): 137.0
23. TCU (9-2): 136.1
24. Texas A&M (9-3): 135.5
25. Boston College (9-3): 135.1
26. Wake Forest (10-2): 132.2
27. Georgia Tech (9-3): 129.7
27. Penn State (8-4): 129.7
29. Houston (9-3): 128.7
30. Missouri (8-4): 128.5
31. Tulsa (8-4): 123.8
32. Oregon State (8-4): 123.6
33. South Carolina (7-5): 122.8
34. Nevada (8-4): 122.2
35. Georgia (8-4): 121.9
36. Southern Mississippi (8-4): 119.6
37. Ohio (9-3): 118.6
38. Central Michigan (8-4): 117.3
39. Navy (8-3): 117.0
39. South Florida (8-4): 117.0
41. Cincinnati (7-5): 116.3
42. Oklahoma State (6-6): 116.1
42. Texas Tech (7-5): 116.1
44. Maryland (8-4): 115.6
45. Oregon (7-5): 114.7
45. UCLA (6-5): 114.7
47. Florida State (6-6): 112.4
48. Western Michigan (8-4): 111.3
49. Utah (7-5): 110.4
50. Kentucky (7-5): 109.6
51. Minnesota (6-6): 108.6
52. Arizona State (7-5): 108.5
52. East Carolina (7-5): 108.5
52. Pittsburgh (6-6): 108.5
52. Purdue (8-5): 108.5
56. Kansas State (7-5): 106.7
57. Alabama (6-6): 106.4
58. Northern Illinois (7-5): 106.2
59. Washington State (6-6): 105.8
60. Middle Tennessee State (7-5): 104.9
61. San Jose State (7-4): 104.6
62. Iowa (6-6): 104.3
63. Rice (7-5): 102.8
64. Miami (Florida) (6-6): 102.7
65. Arizona (6-6): 102.3
66. Kansas (6-6): 98.6
67. SMU (6-6): 96.7
68. Wyoming (6-6): 96.6
69. Washington (5-7): 95.6
70. Troy (6-5): 95.3
71. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5): 94.6
72. New Mexico (6-6): 91.2
73. Virginia (5-7): 88.9
74. Air Force (4-7): 88.8
75. Connecticut (4-7): 87.4
76. Ball State (5-7): 86.3
77. Indiana (5-7): 85.0
78. Kent State (6-6): 84.8
79. Akron (5-7): 83.9
80. Syracuse (4-8): 83.2
81. Fresno State (4-7): 83.1
81. Michigan State (4-8): 83.1
83. Marshall (5-7): 82.8
84. Vanderbilt (4-8): 82.6
85. Arkansas State (6-6): 82.1
86. UTEP (5-7): 81.5
87. Mississippi (4-8): 79.8
88. Toledo (5-7): 78.8
89. Colorado State (4-7): 76.5
90. Baylor (4-8): 76.0
91. North Carolina State (3-9): 74.5
92. Florida Atlantic (5-7): 73.6
92. Northwestern (4-8): 73.6
94. Tulane (4-8): 73.5
95. Central Florida (4-8): 72.2
96. Mississippi State (3-9): 71.9
97. Iowa State (4-8): 70.4
98. UAB (3-9): 68.7
99. New Mexico State (3-8): 68.5
100. Bowling Green (4-8): 67.9
101. Louisiana-Monroe (3-8): 67.8
102. Army (3-8): 67.5
103. North Carolina (3-9): 67.4
104. Illinois (2-10): 64.6
105. Colorado (2-10): 62.2
106. Idaho (4-8): 62.0
107. North Texas (3-9): 58.2
108. Miami (Ohio) (2-10): 57.5
109. Memphis (2-10): 56.6
110. Louisiana Tech (3-9): 54.6
110. San Diego State (2-9): 54.6
112. UNLV (2-10): 54.3
113. Buffalo (2-10): 53.2
114. Stanford (1-10): 49.7
115. Eastern Michigan (1-11): 47.5
116. Utah State (1-11): 40.2
117. Duke (0-12): 33.9
118. Temple (1-11): 33.5
119. Florida International (0-11): 30.9

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home