Bowl Breakdown Analysis Similar to Standarized Tests

Some analysts like to claim that the only way we can compare and contrast the conferences is through the bowl games. It's a factor, sure, but a season cannot be judged based on one game. A conference cannot be judged solely on one week of games.

Here's how the major conferences fared this year in the bowl games: 1) Big East: 5-0 (1.000), 2) SEC: 6-3 (.667), 3) ACC 4-4 (.500), 3) Pac-10: 3-3 (.500), 5) Big XII: 3-5 (.375), 6) Big Ten: 2-5 (.286). Based on this information, are we going to claim that the Big East is the best conference in the country and that the ACC is just as good as the Pac-10 and better than the Big XII and Big Ten? I don't think so.

What many don't acknowledge are the matchups that the conferences face in the bowl season, the teams they beat, the teams they lost to, and the margin of victory or defeat in these games.

Let's look at this, shall we? The Big East teams went 5-0. Louisville defeated ACC Champion Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl by a 24-13 score. West Virginia came back to defeat ACC runner-up Georgia Tech 38-35. Rutgers routed Big XII opponent Kansas State 37-10. South Florida beat up on East Carolina 24-7. Finally, Cincinnati won the debut International Bowl against Western Michigan, holding on 27-24. The Big East teams are now a combined 51-14 (.785). The Big East's opponents are a combined 42-25 (.629). The Big East outscored their opponents 150-89 (average: 30.0-17.8 = +12.2).

The SEC went 6-3. Florida beat up on Big Ten Champ Ohio State 41-14 in the title game. LSU did likewise to Notre Dame, 41-14. Auburn found a way to beat Big XII runner-up Nebraska 17-14. South Carolina came back to defeat Houston 44-36. Georgia came back from a 21-3 halftime deficit to defeat Virginia Tech 31-24. Kentucky surprised many with their 28-20 upset win over Clemson. Alabama fought valiantly, but lost in the end to Oklahoma State 34-31. Arkansas faltered in the red zone in their 17-14 loss to Wisconsin. Finally, Tennessee got outplayed and outcoached against Penn State in their 20-10 loss to the Nittany Lions. The SEC teams are a combined 85-34 (.714). Their opponents were a combined 87-32 (.725). The SEC teams outscored their opponents 257-193 (average: 28.6-21.4 = +7.2).

The ACC went 4-4 this bowl season. Miami (Florida) found a way to outlast Nevada, winning 21-20. Florida State exploded in the 4th quarter to defeat UCLA 44-27. Maryland defeated Purdue 24-7. Boston College found a way to defeat Navy with a last second field goal by a 25-24 score. Clemson got upset by Kentucky 28-20. Georgia Tech blew a big lead in their 38-35 loss to West Virginia. Virginia Tech blew a big first half lead in their 31-24 loss to Georgia. Finally, Wake Forest fought Louisville tough for about three quarters, before losing 24-13. The ACC teams are now a combined 71-35 (.670). Their opponents have gone a combined 72-33 (.686). The ACC teams outscored their opponents 206-199 (average: 25.8-24.9 = +0.9).

The Pac-10 finished 3-3. USC beat up on Michigan 32-18. Oregon State defeated Missouri with a gutsy two-point conversion to win 39-38. California dominated Texas A&M 45-10. Arizona State fell to Hawaii 41-24. Oregon got crushed by BYU 38-8. Finally, UCLA got surprised by Bobby Bowden and the 'Noles 44-27. The Pac-10 teams are a combined 52-27 (.658). Their opponents have gone a combined 57-22 (.722). The Pac-10 teams were outscored 175-189 (average: 29.2-31.5 = -2.3).

The Big XII went a paltry 3-5. Their victories included the following: Texas beating Iowa 26-24, Oklahoma State outlasting Alabama 34-31, and Texas Tech mounting the greatest comeback in bowl history in their 44-41 overtime victory over Minnesota. Nebraska found a way to lose to Auburn 17-14. Oklahoma fell to the undefeated Boise State Broncos in overtime 43-42. Texas A&M got annihilated by California 45-10. Kansas State got creamed by Rutgers 37-10. Finally, Missouri blew a late lead against Oregon State 39-38. The Big XII teams are a combined 69-37 (.651). Their opponents are a combined 73-33 (.689). The Big XII teams were outscored 218-277 (average: 27.3-34.6 = -7.3).

The Big Ten, record wise, was worst of all, going 2-5. Wisconsin somehow beat Arkansas 17-14 and Penn State did likewise to Tennessee, 20-10. Ohio State lost and lost big to Florida in the title game, 41-14. Michigan got hammered in the second half against USC in their 32-18 loss. Minnesota watched on as Texas Tech mounted the biggest comeback in bowl history, in their 44-41 overtime loss to the Red Raiders. Iowa played Texas tough, but came up on the short end, losing 26-24. Purdue fell to Maryland 24-7. The Big Ten teams are a combined 64-28 (.696). Their opponents went a combined 70-23 (.753). The Big Ten teams were outscored 141-191 (average: 20.1-27.3 = -7.2).

If I go by my weekly power rankings' formula, I should come to a solid conclusion on which conference had the most impressive bowl season, from top to bottom.

Big East: 5-0 (1.000) = 100.0, 51-14 (.785) = 78.5, 42-25 (.629) = 62.9, and +12.2
100.0 + 78.5 + 62.9 + 12.2 = 253.6

SEC: 6-3 (.667) = 66.7, 85-34 (.714) = 71.4, 87-32 (.725) = 72.5, and +7.2
66.7 + 71.4 + 72.5 + 7.2 = 217.8

ACC: 4-4 (.500) = 50.0, 71-35 (.670) = 67.0, 72-33 (.686) = 68.6, and +0.9
50.0 + 67.0 + 68.6 + 0.9 = 186.5

Pac-10: 3-3 (.500) = 50.0, 52-27 (.658) = 65.8, 57-22 (.722) = 72.2, and -2.3
50.0 + 65.8 + 72.2 - 2.3 = 185.7

Big XII: 3-5 (.375), 69-37 (.651) = 65.1, 73-33 (.689) = 68.9, and -7.3
37.5 + 65.1 + 68.9 - 7.3 = 164.2

Big Ten: 2-5 (.286), 64-28 (.696) = 69.6, 70-23 (.753) = 75.3, -7.2
28.6 + 69.6 + 75.3 - 7.2 = 166.3

1. Big East: 253.6
2. SEC: 217.8
3. ACC: 186.5
4. Pac-10: 185.7
5. Big Ten: 166.3
6. Big XII: 164.2

This is one game for each team in a 13-15 game season for these clubs. How can we accurately compare the Big East to the SEC based on the bowl games? Florida demolished Ohio State, just as LSU did to Notre Dame, but Arkansas and Tennessee fell to the likes of Wisconsin and Penn State. Rutgers got pitted against a then 7-5 K-State club, South Florida got paired up with a Conference USA team, and Cincinnati faced off against a MAC opponent. I think it's pretty safe to say that overall, the Big East and SEC had the most impressive showings in the bowl season, but how can we justifiably say with the utmost confidence that one is better than the other based on their 14 bowl games? I think it's also fairly safe to say that the Big XII had the poorest showing. The only three games they won, all came against opponents who finished 6-7 and the games were won by a total of 8 points. But, again, can we say with all honesty and certainty that the Big XII is the worst of the major conferences based on their 8 bowl games? Again, the answer to that is no. Some analysts treat these bowls like the SAT or ACT in high school. Shouldn't the bulk of the credit be given to the teams (conferences, in this case) who are consistently good throughout the course of the season? While bowl games may be the time to shine for some and may be the time when certain players, coaches, and teams truly make a name for themselves, the bowl game would not have been possible if not for the 11-14 prior games that were played during the course of the season. Just as we couldn't judge one-loss teams like Florida and Michigan based on one game before the bowl season, we can't fairly conclude such things based on one game during the bowl season.