Bowl Predictions

Bowl Games
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Utah (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)
Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. CST on ESPN in San Diego, CA

I said this a few weeks ago and I still stand by my comment that Navy is the worst 8-4 team in the country and if they weren't Navy (or any academy, for that matter), they wouldn't have been invited to a bowl game. Harsh, I know, but let's run through the Midshipmen's season, shall we? Navy has beaten the following: Temple (4-8) 30-19 on the road, Duke (1-11) 46-43 at home, Air Force (9-3) 31-20 at home, Pittsburgh (5-7) 48-45 in double overtime on the road, Notre Dame (3-9) 46-44 in triple overtime on the road, North Texas (2-10) 74-62 on the road, Northern Illinois (2-10) 35-24 at home, and Army (3-9) 38-3 at a neutral location. Their victims' record this year is a combined 29-67 (.302) and three of those games were decided by three or less points. Three of their four losses are acceptable, as they fell to: Rutgers 41-24 (7-5) on the road, Ball State (7-5) 34-31 in overtime at home, Wake Forest (8-4) 44-24 at home, but then they also lost to I-AA Delaware 59-52 at home.

Utah, meanwhile, struggled out of the gate, starting the season at 1-3, with losses to Oregon State, Air Force, and UNLV, with a 44-6 smashing of UCLA mixed in there. But, since then, the Utes are 7-1, with their lone loss coming at season's end, falling to Mountain West Champion BYU in Provo by the final score of 17-10. In that time-span, the Utes beat three bowl eligible teams, in Louisville, TCU, and New Mexico.

Determining Factor: Navy's focus. Paul Johnson, the head coach of Navy through their bout with Army at season's end, left the club to go coach the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. How large of a distraction will that play in this game? Will the option offense be as crisp as usual?

What to Expect: A lot of points. Utah's total offense may only be ranked 82nd in the country (376.5 ypg) and their scoring offense ranked 65th (25.5 ppg), but against Navy's defense, an opposition's offensive ranking is of no relevance. Navy has allowed 30 or more points on eight different occasions this year (66.7%) and 40 or more on seven occasions (58.3%). This includes allowing 44 points to the anemic Notre Dame offense, 62 points in regulation to the 2-10 North Texas Mean Green, and 59 points to Division I-AA Delaware. They've allowed, on average, 36.5 points per contest. Navy does average to score 39.9 points per outing (9th nationally), so whenever the Midshipmen step out onto the field, expect a lot of points to be scored. I do believe that, in the end, Utah may be a bit too physical for Navy and without Paul Johnson around, the Midshipmen's option attack may falter more than usual. With how horrendous their defense is, they can't expect to falter offensively and pull out the victory in this one.

Prediction: Utah 38 Navy 28

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Memphis (7-5) vs. Florida Atlantic (7-5)
Dec. 21 at 7 p.m. CST on ESPN 2 in New Orleans, LA

Florida Atlantic just started playing football six years ago, in 2001, and head coach Howard Schnellenberger has been there the entire duration. Following their 38-32 upset victory over Troy in the season finale, Florida Atlantic moved to 6-1 in the Sun Belt and earned themselves their first Sun Belt Conference Title. FAU may only be 7-5, but to their credit, they did face some quality opponents outside of conference. They got pounded by Oklahoma State early in the season in Stillwater, fell hard at Kentucky, fought valiantly with South Florida for sixty minutes, before falling late, and finally, were competitive with Florida for a half, before getting hammered in the second. The only loss that came against a team who won't be going bowling was a 33-30 triple overtime setback to Louisiana-Monroe, who finished the year at an even 6-6. There aren't any truly GREAT wins to speak of for the Owls, but they appeared to get stronger as the season progressed. They were down to Florida at the Swamp, just 28-20 with under a minute left in the second quarter, before the Gators went on a 31-0 route from that point forward. They then hammered in-state rival Florida International, who had been playing better in their previous few games, 55-23, on the road. Finally, FAU won a shocker on the road in Troy, Alabama, against the then 8-3 Trojans, winning 38-32 for the conference crown.

Memphis is lucky to be 7-5 at this point in the season. They didn't play nearly the level of competition outside conference as FAU did. The Tigers, sadly enough, were 1-3 in non-conference games, losing by two to SEC doormat Mississippi, beating I-AA Jacksonville State by three touchdowns, falling to Arkansas State of the Sun Belt Conference, and finally, falling to Middle Tennessee State, also of the Sun Belt Conference. Like the MAC, Conference-USA was down some this year, so the most impressive win for the Tigers was probably the 29-26 last second victory over Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg. Memphis may not have been quite as extreme as Virginia in their close victories this year, but they were close and their opponents were not nearly the caliber of the Cavaliers. Memphis won five of their seven games by a combined 13 points: 24-21 over Marshall (3-9) at home, 38-35 over Rice (3-9) on the road, 28-27 over Tulane (4-8) on the road, 29-26 over Southern Mississippi (7-5) on the road, and finally, 55-52 over SMU (1-11) in triple overtime at home. These five opponents have a combined record of 18-42 (.300).

Determining Factor: Motivation. Both teams have had tragedy or breakthrough occur this season. A Memphis player, Taylor Bradford, was shot and killed on campus earlier this year. Florida Atlantic is in their first bowl game in their team's short history. Will Memphis truly come out and try to win one for Bradford? Will Schnellenberger be able to pump his team up enough for the first bowl game in their team's history?

What to Expect: While Florida Atlantic finished the year 6-1 in the Sun Belt Conference, their lone loss being one that came in triple overtime to a 6-6 club, Memphis is 0-2 against that same conference, falling to two 5-7 teams by a total of 18 points. FAU also played a lot stiffer competition outside of their conference than did Memphis, and the Owls should be better prepared for this game because of that. While the stories are always nice to hear in regard to a team overcoming a tragedy, such as the one of Taylor Bradford, unfortunately for the Tigers, I don't see this story as having a happy ending.

Prediction: Florida Atlantic 38 Memphis 24

Papajohns.com Bowl: Southern Mississippi (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (9-3)
Dec. 22 at 12 p.m. CST on ESPN 2 in Birmingham, AL

When I first saw the bowl pairings, without a doubt, I felt this was the biggest mismatch amongst the 32 games. This is coming from a long-time supporter of Jeff Bower and Southern Mississippi. They've typically always been quick, solid, and aggressive defensively, played a very tough non-conference schedule, and spoiled at least one team's season. This has not been one of those years for the Golden Eagles. In fact, speaking of Jeff Bower, he's been let go by USM. I personally don't quite understand that move after Bower has made this Golden Eagles team one of the more, if not the most consistent mid-major team in the nation. Even in a down year, such as this one, USM still finished 7-5 and are off to a bowl game. First off, their schedule was not as tough as usual. USM started the year by playing I-AA Tennessee-Martin, were pounded in the second half by both Tennessee and Boise State, and beat East Carolina by a touchdown. Their 5-3 record in conference may have looked better in years past than this one. Their wins included: SMU (1-11), Marshall (3-9), UAB (2-10), and UTEP (4-8). Their loss in Hattiesburg to Rice (3-9) isn't too impressive either. The defense is the strength of the team, but it is definitely not as strong as in year's past.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 19 points away from being undefeated. Two of the three games, they definitely should've won, as they fell to Louisville (6-6) 28-24 at home and to Pittsburgh (5-7) 24-17 on the road. Their only other loss was a 28-23 setback in Morgantown against West Virginia (10-2). Their non-conference schedule was nothing to write home about (even this time of year), but I've seen worse. They did face a I-AA team in Southeast Missouri State, beat the MAC runner-up in Miami (Ohio), pummeled Marshall of Conference-USA, San Diego State of the Mountain West Conference, and throttled Oregon State of the Pac-10. They beat these five opponents by a combined 179 points (35.8 per game). It was not nearly as easy in the Big East, which may help counter the argument that some believe the Big East was down this year. Five of the Bearcats' seven conference games were decided by one score or less. The only two which didn't were there wins over Connecticut (27-3) and Syracuse (52-31).

Determining Factor: Turnovers. I know, too easy, right? Sure, I guess, but I feel the only way Southern Mississippi can stay in this game is by winning the turnover battle. Cincinnati's offense is much too efficient and explosive for USM's average (at best) offense to counter. The only way USM will be able to successfully counter Cincinnati's attack is by giving their offense the ball in great field position.

What to Expect: So long as Cincinnati stays truly motivated to win this game, they should have no problem doing so. They're 5-0 against non-conference opponents this year and have won those games by an average of approximately 36 points per game. Cincy is ranked 27th in total offense (448.6 ypg), 23rd in pass offense (294.4 ypg), 57th in rush offense (154.2 ypg), and 15th in scoring offense (36.8 ppg). With Jeff Bower now gone and the surprising mystique of USM's defense gone as well, USM will have to hope and pray that they finish the game +3 in turnovers. I just don't see that happening.

Prediction: Cincinnati 34 Southern Mississippi 13

New Mexico Bowl: Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4)
Dec. 22 at 3:30 p.m. CST on ESPN in Albuquerque, NM

Nevada started off slowly this year, at 0-2 and then 2-4. But since that time, the Wolfpack have won four of six, with those two losses being by a combined five points (2.5 per game). Heck, if one wants to look further, five of Nevada's six losses this year have come by a combined 20 points (3.3 per game). Why the sudden turnaround in the latter half of the season? Freshman quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. The Wolfpack found themselves a mid-major gem in Kaepernick, as he's thrown for 2,038 yards and 19 touchdowns, while only being picked off three times and has run for an additional 567 yards (6.1 ypc) and six scores. Nevada doesn't have that signature win this year, as they have one of the youngest teams in the country, but outside of their season-opening loss to Nebraska, they've been in every single game until the clock read triple zeroes. This includes a heartbreaking 69-67 quadruple overtime loss to Boise State on the road and a 28-26 last second loss to unbeaten Hawaii at home.

New Mexico is about the polar opposite of Nevada, as they typically rely on their defense to keep them in games, as opposed to Nevada's high-flying offense. Like Nevada, New Mexico played a very weak schedule, facing: UTEP (4-8), New Mexico State (4-9), Arizona (5-8), and I-AA Sacramento State out-of-conference. They do have one solid win on the season, which Nevada can't boast, as the Lobos beat Air Force (9-3) 34-31 at home just past the midway point of the season. Their four losses came to: UTEP (4-8) by six on the road, BYU (10-2) by 7 at home, TCU (7-5) by 37 on the road, and Utah (8-4) by 18 on the road.

Determining Factor: Home-field. Will it truly play to the advantage of New Mexico in this one? They are 5-1 at home this year, with their lone loss being a seven point defeat at the hands of eventual MWC Champion, BYU. The travel won't be too lengthy for Nevada fans, however. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. For how young Nevada is, I wouldn't be shocked to see them play tighter than usual and if New Mexico gets on the board first, that'll only escalate the tension on the Nevada sideline.

What to Expect: Nevada's dual-threat quarterback is responsible for 2,605 yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns to go with only 3 interceptions. The Wolfpack also bring the nation's 17th leading rusher to the table in Luke Lippincott, who ran for 1,380 yards (5.4 ypc) and 15 touchdowns this season. Nevada ranks 8th in total offense (500.9 ypg), 35th in pass offense (275.1 ypg), 12th in rush offense (225.8 ypg), and 18th in scoring offense (36.3 ppg). Whether the game be home or away, I think the potent offensive attack, especially on the ground, will provide too many problems for the Lobos' defense. It may have taken 13 games, but the youthful Nevada Wolfpack should finally achieve a signature win, which should give them plenty of confidence at the start of the 2008 season.

Prediction: Nevada 31 New Mexico 24

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA (6-6) vs. BYU (10-2)
Dec. 22 at 7 p.m. CST on ESPN in Las Vegas, NV

Wait a minute, where have I seen this match-up before? Ah yes, week 2 of the season, when UCLA beat the Cougars 27-17 at home. But, the teams have gone in completely different directions since that point. Under Karl Dorrell, the Bruins have been notorious for getting off to quick starts and finishing the season horribly. The same held true this season, as following a 30-21 win over California, UCLA improved to 5-2 on the year and looked poised to make a run at the Pac-10 title. But, 1-4 later, here they are, at 6-6. UCLA, as their record should indicate, was a very difficult team to figure out. They beat 10-2 BYU by 10, 8-4 Oregon State by 26 in Corvallis, 6-6 Cal by 9, and 8-4 Oregon by 16. Four of their six wins have come against bowl teams, by a total of 61 points (15.3 per game). But, they also fell to 3-9 Notre Dame by 14 at home, 5-7 Washington State by 20, 5-7 and Arizona by 7. This doesn't even include the 44-6 loss they suffered to Utah (8-4) early in the season, the 4 point defeat at the hands of Arizona State (10-2), or the 24-7 flattening they suffered against USC (10-2). UCLA was 4-3 this year against bowl-bound teams and yet were 2-3 against bowl ineligible clubs.

BYU, meanwhile, after starting the year at 1-2, have finished with nine consecutive wins en route to a Mountain West Title. Only three of those nine wins were by one score or less and those victories came against the likes of: New Mexico (8-4) on the road, TCU (7-5), and Utah (8-4). The Cougars don't appear to have quite the high caliber of offense as they've showcased in past years, but at the same time, their defense appears to be better than in years past. They've only allowed 25 or more points on three occasions this year and have allowed 16 or less on seven separate occasions.

Determining Factor: Learning curve. Their first meeting this year wasn't in the regular season finale, such as Ohio State and Michigan last year. A great deal has occurred since Week 2 of the season. Will BYU have learned a great deal from that 27-17 loss in Los Angeles?

What to Expect: BYU is favored by 5 1/2 points against a team they lost to earlier in the year for a reason. In fact, one could say they're favored by almost a touchdown for several reasons. UCLA fired Karl Dorrell, so how will the team respond to that in this bowl game? How focused will they be? This isn't a team that played well toward the tail-end of the season. They've lost four of their last five and two of those came by 20 and 17 points. The Bruins bring in the 94th ranked offense to face an underrated Cougars' defense. BYU's defense has shown a lot of improvements since their 1-2 start and UCLA's offense has done no such thing. Moreover, BYU brings in the 15th ranked offense in the country and should provide enough spark to send the Dorrell-less Bruins home with a losing record of 6-7.

Prediction: BYU 27 UCLA 17

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5)
Dec. 23 at 7 p.m. on ESPN in Honolulu, HI

Boise State lost out on hopes of returning to the BCS with a 39-27 loss to Hawaii in their regular season finale, to send the Broncos to 10-2. But, one can't realistically expect magic the magnitude BSU experienced last year to be repeated for a second consecutive season. BSU did play a very weak schedule this year. Their non-conference opponents consisted of: I-AA Weber State, Washington (4-9), Wyoming (5-7), and Southern Mississippi (7-5). But, outside of their two losses (the other to Washington), Boise State was only really contested on one occasion, in their 69-67 quadruple overtime win over Nevada (6-6). They beat Wyoming by 10, Southern Miss by 22, New Mexico State by 58, Louisiana Tech by 14, Fresno State by 13, San Jose State by 35, Utah State by 52, and Idaho by 44.

East Carolina got off to a very sluggish start this season, but at 1-3, Skip Holtz's Pirates won six of their next eight games to finish the season at 7-5. One areas where ECU prepared itself more than BSU was in their non-conference games. They played: Virginia Tech (11-2), North Carolina (4-8), West Virginia (10-2), and North Carolina State (5-7). ECU was 1-3 in those games and 6-2 in conference. But, as I've noted before, C-USA was down this year, so how legitimate are those six wins in comparison to Boise State's seven WAC victories? It's difficult to say. ECU was 3-0 against in-conference bowl-bound teams. They beat Houston by a couple, Central Florida by two touchdowns, and Memphis by 16, but they fell by 19 points to Marshall (3-9).

Determining Factor: Offensive consistency. ECU's offense has been bipolar this year. In their five losses, they scored a total of 62 points (12.4 ppg), with their high output being 21 against Southern Mississippi. In their seven victories, however, ECU has compiled a total of 300 points (42.9 ppg). Talk about disparity! BSU, meanwhile is ranked 10th in total offense, 25th in pass offense, 30th in rush offense, and 5th in scoring offense to boast one of the more balanced and consistent offenses in the country. How will ECU fare? If the history of this season is any indicator, we should know early in the ball game.

What to Expect: Plenty of points. After their early 24-10 loss to Washington, Boise State has not been held to lower than 27 points and guess what? That was in their other loss, to Hawaii. Their low output in a victory this year is 34 in their 34-21 win over Fresno State. Boise has scored 34 or more in 10 of 12 games (83.3%), 40 or more in 7 of 12 (58.3%), and 50 or more in 5 of 12 (41.7%). Boise better not take East Carolina for granted, as they can score many points in a short period of time, but I'll take Boise's balanced and consistent offense any day over ECU's erratic, bipolar one.

Prediction: Boise State 45 East Carolina 24

Motor City Bowl: Purdue (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (8-5)
Dec. 26 at 6:30 p.m. CST on ESPN in Detroit, MI

Just like in the BYU/UCLA match-up this bowl season, we have ourselves another re-match. In Week 3, Purdue beat the Chippewas 45-22 in West Lafayette and it wasn't even that close. Purdue started the season great, but after beating Notre Dame 33-19 to improve to 5-0, they lost five of their final seven games, all five of those losses coming to bowl teams. In fact, on the season, Purdue is 1-5 against bowl-bound clubs. That one win? Central Michigan.

Like Purdue, Central Michigan has just one win against a bowl-bound squad, that being Ball State. The Chippewas did appear to be a completely different team outside of conference play than they did in it. Four of CMU's five losses came to teams not in the MAC, as Central Michigan was 1-4 in non-conference games. They lost to: Kansas (11-1), Purdue (7-5), I-AA North Dakota State, and Clemson (9-3), while beating Army (3-9). The games weren't even close, as CMU was outscored in these five games by a total of 130 points (26.0 per game). If one doesn't include their 24 point win over Army, they were outscored by the other four teams by 154 points (38.5 per game). Meanwhile, in conference, the Chippewas went 7-1 (including the MAC Title game) and outscored their MAC opponents by a combined 103 points (12.9 per game).

Determining Factor. The wild card. I'm talking about Central Michigan quarterback, Dan LeFevour. Not to many have heard of this guy, but he is a gamer. On the season, the sophomore quarterback completely about two-thirds of his passes for 3,360 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He also led the team in rushing, totaling 1,008 yards on the ground (6.5 ypc) for an additional 17 scores. Purdue was able to limit the quarterback in their first go-round this year. Will/Can it happen again?

What to Expect: Some points. Central Michigan was dreadful out-of-conference, including their loss to Purdue, but they have played better ball in the second half of the season and have scored at least 34 points in every victory. They've scored 30 or more in 9 of 13 games (69.2%) and 40 or more in 5 of 13 (38.5%). Both teams are ranked in the top 40 in total offense, passing offense, and scoring offense, and CMU is ranked 35th in rush offense. But, I look at CMU's defense as the main potential culprit to another out-of-conference loss. While CMU should be able to score a few points on the very average Boilermakers' defense, the Chippewas have allowed 30 or more points in 10 of 13 games (76.9%) and 40 or more in 5 of 13 (38.5%). I certainly like how Purdue's offense matches up with CMU's defense more so than CMU's offense against Purdue's defense.

Prediction: Purdue 41 Central Michigan 24

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: Arizona State (10-2) vs. Texas (9-3)
Dec. 27 at 7 p.m. CST on ESPN in San Diego, CA

Two top twenty teams in a December 27th Bowl seems like a crime to me. ASU had a potential shot at earning a BCS at-large bid, but go from a BCS bowl game to the Holiday Bowl in what may be one of the better bowl match-ups this year. Dennis Erickson's first season can be seen as nothing else but a success, as he led ASU to a 10-2 record, with their only two losses being to Oregon (with a healthy Dixon) in Eugene and USC. ASU's offense played more inconsistently down the stretch, scoring 91 points in their final four games (2-2 in that span, 22.8 ppg), but their defense is better than most people give them credit for. Outside of USC, Arizona State has arguably the best defense in the Pac-10, as they allowed 20 or fewer points in 9 of 12 games this season (75.0%).

Texas would've had a say in the BCS picture had they closed their season with a win at College Station against Texas A&M. They failed to do so and with that, failed to even make a strong argument to be a BCS at-large team. Even though the Longhorns are 9-3, they are a tough team to figure out. They beat the likes of: Arkansas State (5-7), Central Florida (10-3), Nebraska (5-7), and Oklahoma State (6-6) by a combined 17 points (4.3 per game). They got taken to the shed by Kansas State (5-7) 41-21 in Austin and lost to a reeling Texas A&M squad, 38-30, to close the regular season.

Determining Factor: Colt McCoy. One big reason for Texas' inconsistencies has been the inconsistent play by quarterback Colt McCoy. He has thrown for 21 touchdowns this season, but to go with those 21 scores, he's also thrown 18 interceptions. McCoy can't be throwing balls to the Sundevils in this one if he wants to give his team a chance for the victory.

What to Expect: Both teams are fairly solid against the run, which gives a slight edge to Arizona State, as Texas' Jamaal Charles is a much more dangerous threat than either of ASU's tailbacks. But, ASU is much better against the pass than Texas and again, that gives an advantage to the Sundevils. Texas allowed an average of 275.5 yards through the air per game this season. ASU, led by quarterback Rudy Carpenter, ranked 30th in pass offense, averaging 287.5 yards through the air. I'm not expecting a shoot-out by any stretch of the imagination, but believe, based on the favorable match-ups, that the Sundevils' passing attack should be able to muster up enough points to finish the game with the upper hand on Texas.

Prediction: Arizona State 24 Texas 21
Champs Sports Bowl: Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)
Dec. 28 at 4 p.m. CST on ESPN in Orlando, FL

They may have started the season a perfect 8-0, following their 14-10 come-from-behind victory over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, but even then, I felt that BC wasn't as good as their record indicated. They showcased this their final five games, losing three of those, including the ACC Title game to Virginia Tech. One reason I wasn't overly impressive by the Golden Eagles at the midway point dealt with their cakewalk of a non-conference schedule. They faced the likes of: Army (3-9), I-AA Massachusetts, Bowling Green (8-4), and Notre Dame (3-9). Outside of their dismantling of Bowling Green, they didn't really dominate their non-conference opponents either, winning by a combined 74 points (18.5 per game). That may sound like a lot, but against two 3-9 schools, one I-AA team, and a MAC team? That doesn't tickle my fancy too much.

Whereas Virginia seemed to be the master at the close victory, Michigan State was the master at losing the close games. Their biggest defeat? Seven points. They lost all five games by a combined 28 points (5.6 per game) and three of those losses were to bowl-bound clubs. All five teams MSU lost to were bowl eligible at season's end, but Iowa (6-6) and Northwestern (6-6) were not invited to one of the 32 post-season games. Like BC, Michigan State didn't play a very tough non-conference schedule, as they defeated: UAB (2-10), Bowling Green (8-4), Pittsburgh (5-7), and Notre Dame (3-9). Michigan State did play their season in streaks, as they started the year 4-0, then lost five of their next six to even them at 5-5, and finished with two wins over Purdue and Penn State to vault them to 7-5 before this bowl game.

Determining Factor: Matt Ryan. It's the senior quarterback's final game at Boston College and as has been the case all season, the entire BC offense will be leaning heavily on him to produce. He's excelled with this pressure at times and has fallen at others. Ryan has thrown for 4,258 yards and 28 touchdowns this season, but has also tossed 18 interceptions. He'll need to step up in his final game and provide some leadership for a BC team that was one victory away from going to a BCS game but had to settle for this bout instead.

What to Expect: This was honestly one of the tougher games I picked. I flip-flopped more times than a politician during election season. But, while I firmly believe Michigan State has the more balanced of the two offenses, I believe that Boston College's underrated run defense will help counter that and make this a game either won or lost through the air. With it being Matt Ryan's final game, I have to believe that he will get it done in crunch time and leave for the pros on a winning note.

Prediction: Boston College 28 Michigan State 24

Texas Bowl: TCU (7-5) vs. Houston (8-4)
Dec. 28 at 7 p.m. CST on NFL Network in Houston, TX

There were analysts spouting off in the pre-season that TCU would be this year's Boise State. Seven wins and five losses later, we can all safely conclude that this was anything but a Boise State season for the Horned Frogs. TCU's defense, as usual under Gary Patterson, was fairly solid, as they allowed 24 or fewer points in 7 of 12 games (58.3%). The offense, as usual, wasn't very productive until the tail-end of the season, which saw the Horned Frogs win three of their final four, scoring 138 points in that time-span (34.5 per game). TCU was 1-4 against bowl competition this year, with their only win being a 37-0 shut-out of New Mexico (8-4) at home.

Houston plays a completely different style of football. Where TCU wants to win by defense, Houston doesn't know what a defense is. They allowed 27 or more points in 9 of 12 games (75.0%) this season and 48 or more in 3 of 12 (25.0%). They got away with it more times than not, however, as their offense was ranked 4th in the country, averaging 528.9 yards per contest. Outside of the aberration that was their 56-7 loss to Tulsa, Houston didn't score less than 24 points all season. They scored 30 or more in 9 of 12 games (75.0%) and 40 or more in 3 of 12 (25.0%). Unlike TCU, who had one win to their name in regard to bowl teams they've defeated, Houston is 0-4 against such teams, losing to: Oregon (8-4), East Carolina (7-5), Alabama (6-6), and Tulsa (9-4).

Determining Factor: Run defense. Will TCU be able to limit Houston's stud tailback, Anthony Alridge, who ran for 1,568 yards this year (6.4 ypc) and 14 touchdowns? Will they be able to do that enough to where Houston has to throw the football? Will TCU be able to pressure Case Keenum into throwing interceptions? He completed nearly 70% of his passes, but to go along with 13 touchdowns, he threw 10 to his opponents.

What to Expect: While Houston would like this game to be a shoot-out, without head coach Art Briles to accompany them and by facing potentially the best defensive team in the Mountain West Conference, I don't see that happening. It's an interesting match-up, with polar opposites squaring off against one another. While Houston should be able to score SOME points, I look for the always creative Gary Patterson to limit Alridge somewhat and bring a load of pressure on Keenum, to force some critical mistakes. TCU has a very average (at best) offense, but going against that Houston defense, many 8-man high school teams around the country look efficient offensively.

Prediction: TCU 38 Houston 24

Emerald Bowl: Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
Dec. 28 at 7:30 p.m. CST on ESPN in San Francisco, CA

This may look like an easy game to pick on paper, but just as Maryland is no team to be taken for granted, Oregon State is never a guarantee either. Three of Maryland's six victories were against bowl competition and five of their six losses also came against bowl-bound clubs. They beat Rutgers by ten on the road, Georgia Tech by a pair the following game, and defeated Boston College in a 42-35 shoot-out in the latter part of the season. Four of their six losses also came by a margin of 8 points or less and a total of 19 points (4.8 per game). These losses were to: Wake Forest on the road by seven in overtime, Virginia at home by one, North Carolina by a field goal in Chapel Hill, and Florida State by 8 in Tallahassee.

Oregon State got off to another notoriously slow start this year, going 2-3 out of the gate, but finishing strong at 6-1, with the only loss in that stretch being a 24-3 setback against USC at the Coliseum. Overall, OSU has been more consistent than Maryland, but have shown some inconsistencies, as well. Their opening 24-7 win over Utah was impressive and looks even better on the resume' now that the Utes finished the year 9-4 with a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. But Oregon State was in for a rude awakening the following week, as they got hammered into oblivion 34-3 by Cincinnati on the road. They also suffered a 40-14 loss at home against UCLA. Similar to Maryland's 3-5 record against bowl teams this year, Oregon State went 3-4. Along with the Utah win to open the season, they also beat California in Berkeley by 3 and finished the year with a 38-31 double overtime win over their rival Ducks in Eugene.

Determining Factor: Coach Preparation. I know, sounds simple enough, right? This is what I mean by that. Both Oregon State's Mike Riley and Maryland's Ralph Friedgen have had a successful run during bowl season. Oregon State is 3-0 under Riley, including their 39-38 come-from-behind win last year over Missouri in the Sun Bowl. Maryland, under Friedgen, have won their last three bowl games and in a convincing fashion, beating their opponents by a combined score of 95-17 (average of 31.7 - 5.7), including their 24-7 win over Purdue last year in the Champs Sports Bowl. So, which coach will continue their recent post-season success? Who will be able to pull out the gadgets that are actually successful? Who will be able to win the chess match?

What to Expect: While I know that Oregon State is the favorite and rightly so, by 4 1/2 points, I don't think Maryland should be looked over. Both teams' offensive strengths lie in their rushing attack, with Yvenson Bernard, who eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark this season, galloping his way for 1,037 yards (4.4 ypc) and 12 touchdowns. To counter Bernard are Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball for the Terps. Neither back eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark, but both ran for over 750 yards a piece, making Maryland one of only four I-A teams to achieve such a feat this season. Lattimore ran for 789 yards (3.8 ypc) and 13 touchdowns and Ball rushed for 763 yards (4.4 ypc) and 12 scores. As one can tell by those numbers, none of these three backs are true game-breakers and it makes field position, penalties, and turnovers that much more critical. Based on Maryland's inconsistencies this season, I'm hard-pressed to pick them to win the game, but do believe they'll keep it close. I'd be very surprised to see a blow-out for either side in this one.

Prediction: Oregon State 24 Maryland 21

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Dec. 29 at 12:00 p.m. CST on ESPN in Charlotte, NC

Whenever I see Connecticut, I think basketball: Richard "Rip" Hamilton, Ray Allen, Rudy Gay, Michael Williams, Donyell Marshall, Charlie Villanueva, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, etc. I don't think football and perhaps others ran into that same dilemma this year as the Huskies successful run at a co-Big East Championship unfolded. Granted, UConn didn't play the toughest schedule. But, they were 2-3 against bowl-bound clubs and 3-3 against bowl-eligible teams. Their non-conference schedule was nothing to smile about, as they played: Duke (1-11), I-AA Maine, Temple (4-8), Akron (4-8), and Virginia (9-3). But, with wins over South Florida (9-3) by 7, Rutgers (7-5) by 19, and Louisville (6-6) by 4, it should at least make one respect the Huskies. Plus, one of their losses was a 17-16 defeat at the hands of Virginia (9-3). They were two points away from going 10-2 on the year, 3-2 against bowl teams and 4-2 against bowl eligibles.

The defending ACC Champion got off to a bad start this year and not because their play was necessarily horrible. But, they lost starting quarterback Riley Skinner for the first two games of the season and lost both of those, to Boson College by 10 and Nebraska by 3. But, once Skinner returned, Wake's winning ways did as well, as they finished the season 8-2, with one of those losses being a 17-16 defeat against Virginia. Similar to UConn, Wake went 3-3 against bowl competition this year, defeating: Maryland by 7 in overtime, Florida State by 3, and Navy by 20 on the road. I mentioned the losses to Boston College and Virginia. Their only blow-out loss game late in the season at the hands of Clemson on the road, in the Tigers' 44-10 dismantling of the Deacs.

Determining Factor: Inopportune Mistakes. That's always a critical factor, right? Well, yeah, but especially in this game. Both teams come in with solid defense and woeful offenses. UConn is ranked 82nd in total offense and Wake is ranked 100th in total offense. They're ranked 65th and 62nd in scoring offense. So, while inopportune mistakes may be a factor in determining the winner of a Texas Tech/Clemson game, it makes it even more critical in a game between two such clubs as Connecticut and Wake Forest.

What to Expect: Looking for the most entertaining game of the bowl season? A high-scoring shoot-out? You may want to look elsewhere. What should be expected, though, is a tightly contested battle for sixty minutes, solid defensive play, and long, concise drives by the offenses. Wake quarterback Riley Skinner is an interesting story. The guy has completed 71.9% of his passes this year, but to go along with 11 touchdown tossed, he's thrown 12 interceptions. If he gets the ball into the hands of his receivers, especially Kenneth Moore (899 receiving yards on the year), Wake should be able to score enough points to pull out the victory. If Skinner turns it over, however, UConn could very well nab their 10th win of the year.

Prediction: Wake Forest 24 Connecticut 17

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
Dec. 29 at 3:30 p.m. CST on ESPN in Memphis, TN

This is a game I'm looking forward to, if for nothing else, the stories. Mississippi State was a program left in shambles by former head coach, Jackie Sherrill, and in his fourth season as head coach, Slyvester Croom has taken the once dormant Bulldogs to a bowl game. On the other side is George O'Leary, who is taking his Golden Knights to their second bowl game in his three years coaching there. Who's there to watch in this one? One Kevin Smith, tailback out of UCF. The guy only leads the nation in rushing with 2,448 yards (5.9 ypc) and 29 touchdowns on the season (30 total). If Smith runs for 181 yards or more in this game, he will have broken the all-time single season record for rushing yards, set by Barry Sanders. He's only been held to under 100 yards one time this season, in UCF's 64-12 loss to South Florida in UCF's sixth game of the season. UCF started the year looking fairly average, at 3-3, but since then, they've won seven consecutive games, including the Conference-USA Title game against Tulsa. The closest game in that span was a 45-31 victory on the road against UAB. They've won those games by a combined 148 points (21.1 per game). While C-USA was down this year, UCF still managed to go 4-3 against bowl competition. I mentioned the domination of USF against the Golden Knights. In addition to that loss, UCF lost early in the season on the road to East Carolina by a pair of touchdowns and at home against Texas by the final score of 35-32. They slaughtered Memphis 56-20, beat up on Tulsa 44-23, won in Hattiesburg against Southern Miss 34-17, and beat Tulsa in the C-USA Title game 44-25.

Just for Mississippi State to be a part of bowl season is an accomplishment in its own right and if Slyvester Croom isn't named SEC Coach of the Year, something is seriously wrong. After the first week, MSU appeared to be the SEC doormat once again, as they lost at home to LSU 45-0. But, they went 7-4 after that game, were 3-4 against bowl-bound teams, 3-5 against bowl eligible programs, and an even 4-4 in SEC play. Outside of the loss to LSU, Mississippi State fell to South Carolina on the road by 17, Tennessee at home by a dozen, West Virginia in Morgantown by 25, and Arkansas on the road by two touchdowns. MSU didn't play the toughest schedule, but they defeated Auburn 19-14 on the road, Kentucky 31-14 also on the road, and Alabama 17-12 in Starkville.

Determining Factor: Pace. These two clubs have completely different philosophies on how to play and win football games. It's quite something to see, but Mississippi State is ranked, get this, 115th in total offense, 111th in pass offense, 80th in rush offense, and 85th in scoring offense, and are still 7-5 and going bowling (take note of that, Nebraska fans!). MSU carries with them two bruising backs in Anthony Dixon and Ducre. UCF meanwhile, has scored 30 or more points in 11 of 13 games (84.6%) and 40 or more in 6 of 13 (46.2%). Will MSU be able to pound it out with their two backs on the ground, drain time off the clock, and frustrate the Central Florida offense? Will UCF score early, put added pressure on the usually inept Mississippi State offense and force some mistakes, which will make it all but impossible for the Bulldogs to comeback?

What to Expect: As much as I like to see Mississippi State win under head coach Slyvester Croom, I think they may have their hands full in this one. MSU's defense is usually fairly stingy, as they held opponents to 20 or less points on seven different occasions this year, but the best of that bunch would have to be Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn, and none of those three teams presents as much offensive potency as Central Florida. Also, to make matters worse, MSU has given up 200 or more yards on the ground in four of their last six games. With Smith coming off a 284 yard performance against Tulsa in the Conference-USA Title game, that doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs. MSU should hang tough for about a half, but I think Smith and the UCF offense will prove to be too much for the Bulldogs to handle.

Prediction: Central Florida 31 Mississippi State 17

Valero Alamo Bowl: Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)
Dec. 29 at 7 p.m. CST on ESPN in San Antonio, TX

Penn State, like most Big Ten teams this year, presents a certain kind of mystery. Why? An easy non-conference schedule and a Big Ten conference that may very well be the worst of the majors this year. Out-of-conference, PSU played (and beat): Florida International (1-11), Notre Dame (3-9), Buffalo (5-7), and Temple (4-8). Their four non-conference opponents were a combined 13-35 (.271). Granted, they pretty much dominated all four opponents, but still, what can/does that really say about a football team? PSU was 3-4 against bowl teams and 4-4 against bowl eligibles, all of those teams being of the conference variety. They defeated: Iowa at home by 20, Wisconsin at home by 31, Indiana on the road by 5, and Purdue at home by 7. Their losses were to: Michigan in Ann Arbor by 5, Illinois in Champaign by 7, Ohio State at home by 20, and Michigan State in East Lansing by 4. While the dominating win against Wisconsin was impressive, they also laid a giant egg at home against Ohio State on primetime national television.

Texas A&M has been more inconsistent than the Nittany Lions, but they've also faced a tougher schedule. Their non-conference schedule was nothing special, but they did face a bowl-bound Fresno State, beating the Bulldogs 47-45 in triple overtime. Like PSU, A&M was 3-4 against bowl teams. To go with their win over Fresno State, they also beat Oklahoma State by 1 in Stillwater, and finished the regular season with a big 38-30 win over Texas. They did get hammered by Texas Tech 35-7 at the midway point in the season in Lubbock, lost a tough one to Kansas 19-11 at College Station, got pummeled in Norman by Oklahoma 42-14, and lost a hard-fought game at Missouri, falling to the Tigers 40-26. In their only other defeat, A&M lost early in the season at the Orange Bowl to Miami, 34-17.

Determining Factor: Match-ups. Who will make the most of these? The Big Ten is not used to the option offense. Just ask Ohio State in regard to Juice Williams, Rashad Mendenhall, and Illinois. Heck, ask Jim Tressell in regard to Chris Leak, Tim Tebow and company at Florida. Will A&M quarterback Stephen McGee and bull Jorvorskie Lane be able to exploit this inexperience in their favor? Will PSU be able to exploit A&M's below average secondary, as Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri did?

What to Expect: With the extra long layoffs, the inexperience in defending such an offense that A&M presents, and in being mysterious due to their somewhat weak schedule, I'm having a difficult time picking the Big Ten schools and that's the case again here. The one key question I have in regard to A&M is, how distracted will the team be after the firing of Dennis Franchione? Some clubs handle the situation like there wasn't a change at all and others appear to be lost, seeking a compass, a GPS System, anything, to show them some direction. Stephen McGee stepped up to the challenge in the Texas game and I have a feeling he'll do likewise here. Let's also not forget that there will be many more fans dressed in maroon than white and blue.

Prediction: Texas A&M 27 Penn State 24

PetroSun Independence Bowl: Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)
Dec. 30 at 7 p.m. CST on ESPN in Shreveport, LA

Of all 32 games, this was the toughest for me to decide on. Here we have a match-up between a team that has lost four straight (including one to Louisiana-Monroe) heading into bowl season and the other who has looked like a top 10 team at times and a bottom 10 at others. First, with Alabama. The Tide did start the season well. Following a 41-17 thrashing of Tennessee in Tuscaloosa, the Tide improved to 6-2 and appeared to be making a run at an SEC Title game bid. But, those hopes were quickly dashed, as the Tide lost their final four games en route to their 6-6 season. They're actually only 5-6 against I-A competition this year. Even though they lost their last four, three of which are bowl-bound clubs, Alabama still finished the year 3-5 against bowl competition. They won at home against Arkansas early in the season by a field goal, beat Houston in Tuscaloosa by 6, and pounded Tennessee, as I mentioned earlier. One thing I will give the Tide is they were never out of any ball game this year. In their six losses, they lost by a combined 36 points (6.0 per game), the largest margin of defeat being seven against Florida State (in Tallahassee), LSU (at home), Louisiana-Monroe (at home), and Auburn (road). Nine of Alabama's twelve games (75.0%) were decided by 7 points or less. So, the chances are, when Bama comes to down, expect some nail-biting to ensue near game's end.

Colorado was much less consistent than Bama. They were bipolar in the truest sense of the term. In their six wins, Colorado averaged to score 39.8 points a contest and allow 25.3 points a game. In their six losses, however, CU just averaged to score 15.3 points per game, while allowing an average of 33.5 points a contest. CU was just 2-5 against bowl-bound teams this year. One of those wins, however, came against Big XII Champion Oklahoma, in the Buffs 27-24 last-second win over the Sooners. They also beat Texas Tech 31-26 in Lubbock. However, they lost to: Arizona State in Tempe by 19, Florida State at home by 10, Kansas State in Manhattan by 27, Kansas at home by 5, and Missouri at home by 45.

Determining Factor: Motivation. Will Alabama's players truly feel pumped about Nick Saban's first bowl game with them and will they play like it? Will they still be hung over from their awful end to the regular season? Will Colorado's players be especially pumped, as this was supposed to be another rebuilding year under Dan Hawkins? Who is going to want it more?

What to Expect: With Alabama in town, I expect it to be close. The offensive output by both teams are eerily similar. Bama is ranked 79th in total offense (385.4 ypg), while CU is ranked 78th (386.2 ypg). Alabama is ranked 61st in pass offense (234.8 ypg) and CU is ranked 60th (236.2 ypg). There's more separation in the run game, as Bama is ranked 61st (150.7 ypg), while the Buffs are ranked 64th (150.0 ypg). Finally, in terms of scoring offense, Bama ranks 69th (26.8 ppg) and CU at 66th (27.6 ppg). Both quarterbacks can be a little erratic, as they average to complete about 55% of the passes and that's not the worst part. Combined, John Parker Wilson and Cody Hawkins have thrown 34 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. While these offensive similarities are interesting, the game will be won on the defensive end, where Alabama holds the clear edge. This, along with the UConn/Wake Forest match-up, won't appease much to Mike Martz clones out there, but it should be valiantly fought by both squads for the duration.

Prediction: Alabama 20 Colorado 17

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: California (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
Dec. 31 at 11:30 a.m. CST on ESPN in Fort Worth, TX

I don't think any team in college football this year suffered as tremendous a collapse as California. Cal started the year 5-0 and were ranked #2 in the country heading into the home game against Oregon State. Earlier that evening, #1 LSU lost to Kentucky, so with a victory against the Beavers, Cal would have been #1 that following week. Cal fell 31-28 to Oregon State and finished the year 1-6, with their only win being a 20-17 victory over Washington State (5-7) at home. Cal finished the year 2-4 against bowl teams, as they beat Tennessee in their season-opener, 45-31 and defeated Oregon (with Dixon) 31-24 at Autzen Stadium. But, that win against the Ducks was their last for a month, as they lost to Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona State consecutively, before beating WSU. They then finished their season with three more consecutive losses, to USC, Washington (4-9), and Stanford (4-8). While the defense was rather consistent from game 1 through game 12, the offense took an amazing downturn. Through six games, Cal was 5-1 and averaged 37.5 points per game, with their low output being 28 points against Oregon State. In their final six, the Bears were 1-5 and averaged a measly 19.0 points an outing, with their high output being 23 against Washington State.

Air Force, meanwhile, went in a completely different direction than the Golden Bears. Following their disappointing 31-20 loss to Navy, which sent the Falcons to 3-2 on the season, Air Force won six of their final seven regular season games, with their lone loss being a 34-31 setback on the road to New Mexico (8-4). On the season, Air Force was 2-3 against bowl teams. In addition to their losses against Navy and New Mexico, they fell to BYU in Provo 31-6 early in the year. They did defeat Utah (8-4) 20-12 in Salt Lake City this year, as well as TCU (7-5) 20-17 in overtime. While Cal's offense took a stumbling dive in the second half of the season, much progression was illustrated with the Falcons' offense. In their first six games, they scored 20 or fewer points in four of those contests. In their final six regular season games, Air Force was held to 20 or less on just one occasion, while scoring 30 or more in the other five.

Determining Factor: Motivation. This is somewhat reminiscent of the Oregon/BYU game a year ago. BYU had been hot in the second half of the season and Oregon was in a tailspin after their solid start. I picked BYU in that game, largely because chances were that BYU wanted the game far more than the Ducks. When the Ducks were off to a fast start a year ago, no one in their locker room would've hypothesized that they'd wind up facing BYU in a bowl game. BYU, on the other hand, even though they had a very stout record, had a lot to prove to the country and what better way to do that than against a well-respected Oregon club? Will California show a lack of motivation in this game as Oregon displayed a year ago against BYU? Will Air Force see this as a golden opportunity to earn some more respect, in defeating what was once the #2 team in the country? Will Cal head coach, Jeff Tedford, find a way to rally his troops to put the regular season behind them and to finish the year on a winning note?

What to Expect: Solid, disciplined, motivated, mistake-free football from the Falcons. Their offense has shown immense improvements as the year has progressed and bring with them the 2nd ranked rush offense (298.5 ypg) in the country. While Cal may clearly have the quicker and more talented of the two teams, Air Force will want it more than the Bears. Their focus, will, and determination should be enough to beat the reeling Bears, who would fall to 6-7 on the season.

Prediction: Air Force 31 California 24

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl: Georgia Tech (7-5) vs. Fresno State (8-4)
Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. CST on ESPN2 in Boise, ID

Chan Gailey is out as head coach at Georgia Tech, after sending his Yellow Jackets to six bowl games in his six seasons. One could look at this season as a disappointment, but I'm not sure what all could be expected after losing stud wideout Calvin Johnson and inconsistent, but explosive Reggie Ball. Tech pretty much beat the teams they should've beaten, but had difficulty against average or better competition, as they were 1-5 against bowl-bound teams. Their only such win came in their fifth game of the season, in a 13-3 home victory over Clemson. They didn't fare well against such competition the rest of the season, however. They lost to: Boston College by 14 at home, Virginia by 5 on the road, Maryland by 2 on the road, Virginia Tech by 24 at home, and Georgia by 14. In Gailey's tenure, Tech's defense was the constant and even though it was tough for the most part this season, it did sputter some down the stretch. In their final four games (2-2), Tech allowed: 27 to Virginia Tech, 24 to Duke, 25 to North Carolina, and 31 to Georgia, four schools not known for bringing offensive powerhouses onto the field.

Pat Hill's Fresno State Bulldogs are bowling again. Fresno had gone to seven consecutive bowl games until last year's 4-8 finish. They're back at 8-4 and bowling this season, looking for their fourth bowl victory in their last six season. As usual, Fresno wasn't afraid to play anyone, anywhere, as they faced Texas A&M at College Station and Oregon at Autzen this year. It took three overtimes for A&M to defeat Fresno, 47-45 and the very next week, Oregon pounded on the fatigued Bulldogs, 52-21. Similar to Georgia Tech, Fresno was only 1-4 against bowl competition this year, with their sole win being a 49-41 victory at Nevada. To go along with their losses to A&M and Oregon, Fresno fell to Boise State 34-21 at home and in Honolulu to unbeaten Hawaii by the final score of 37-30. Following their 1-2 start, Fresno finished the year 7-2, with only two of those wins coming by 8 points or less.

Determining Factor: Motivation. I know I've used this before, but where a Pat Hill game travels, the motivational factor shall follow. Georgia Tech has hired former Navy head coach, Paul Johnson, but will be coached in this game by defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta. Will the change on the sideline affect the Yellow Jackets' players any? Will Hill have his kids especially fired up, as they're squaring off against a major conference opponent, after a year layoff, at a stadium they're somewhat familiar with?

What to Expect: Don't expect too many points in this one. Both teams bring with them solid running games, as Tech comes in ranked 19th in the country and Fresno at 17th. While Georgia Tech is usually staunch against the run, they've struggled over the past four games on defense, while Fresno has scored 143 points (35.8 per game) in that same time-span. Similar to the Air Force game, I have to believe that Fresno wants this game more than Georgia Tech. Some may say that doesn't really matter. All I have to do is point to Boise State and Oklahoma last year to prove that it most certainly does.

Prediction: Fresno State 23 Georgia Tech 20

Brut Sun Bowl: South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. CST on CBS in El Paso, TX

It feels kind of funny to say, but South Florida is, in my opinion, of the more underappreciated teams this season. Many laughed when the Bulls vaulted up to #2 in the country after starting the year at 6-0, but three consecutive losses then ensued, before the Bulls rebounded at season's end to win their final three. USF is 4-3 against bowl-bound teams this year and 5-3 against bowl eligibles. They beat: Auburn on the road 26-23 in overtime, West Virginia 21-13 at home, Florida Atlantic 35-23 on the road, Central Florida 64-12 at home, and finally, Louisville 55-17 at home. Trickiness in the special teams' game uplifted Rutgers to a home upset of USF, 30-27, for the Bulls' first loss. USF lost another tough road game the following week, losing to UConn 22-15. Finally, at home, they had to overcome a first quarter nightmare against Cincinnati, before losing 38-33. USF is 18 points away from a perfect season. If the teams played again, I think USF would beat Rutgers and UConn, home or away. Against Cincinnati, I'm not certain about, but think I'd take the Bulls if the game were played in Tampa. USF's offense was rather balanced and efficient, for the most part, as they scored 30 or more points in seven games and 40 or more in four contests. In their final three games of the season (all wins), USF outscored their opponents 144-64 (average of 48.0 - 21.3). The defense was also stout, allowing 23 or less points in 9 of the Bulls' 12 games (75.0%).

Like South Florida, Oregon had a shot to goto the National Championship game. If it wasn't for star quarterback Dennis Dixon's season-ending knee injury against Arizona, the Ducks may very well be playing for the title. But, after the injury, it's been a completely different team, especially on offense. Oregon was 8-1 this year when Dixon started and played for at least a half and are 0-3 when that didn't take place, those three losses being the final three games of the regular season. Like USF, Oregon went 5-3 against bowl opponents this year. Unlike some Big Ten and SEC clubs, Oregon faced three bowl-worthy opponents in their three non-conference games, in: Houston (8-4), Michigan (8-4), and Fresno State (8-4). They won all three of those games by a combined 84 points (28.0 per game). Also to their credit, Oregon beat USC and Arizona State, the top two Pac-10 teams at season's end. Their only loss before the Dixon injury was a 31-24 defeat at home against California, when the Bears were actually playing solid football. The final three games however, saw the Ducks get defeated by: Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State by a combined score of 88-55 (average of 29.3 - 18.3).

Determining Factor: Quarterback Play. South Florida's Matt Grothe is one of more dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, but he has been known to turn the ball over some. While he's completed about 60% of his passes for close to 2,500 yards and 13 touchdowns, he's also thrown 12 interceptions. After Dennis Dixon went down with an injury, Oregon has been hard-pressed to find a quarterback who will not make mistakes and can consistently lead the team down the field. The quarterback that makes the fewest mistakes and biggest plays should lead their team to victory in this one.

What to Expect: South Florida is playing some of their best football of the season right now, both offensively and defensively. Oregon has a very tough task on their hands in this Sun Bowl. With Dennis Dixon out and tailback Jonathan Stewart not yet at 100%, I'm giving a decided edge to the Bulls to win their team record 10th game of the season.

Prediction: South Florida 38 Oregon 24

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl: Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
Dec. 31 at 3 p.m. CST on ESPN in Nashville, TN

Both teams head into this bowl game down in a way. Kentucky started the year 6-1, following their 43-37 triple overtime upset win over then #1 LSU. The Wildcats then went on to lose four of their final five games, with their only victory being a 27-20 win against Vanderbilt (5-7). UK was 3-4 against bowl teams this year and 4-5 against bowl eligibles. They beat: in-state rival Louisville 40-34, Arkansas 42-29 on the road, Florida Atlantic 45-17, and the before-mentioned LSU game. Their losses came against: South Carolina by 15, Florida by 8, Mississippi State by 17, Georgia by 11, and Tennessee by 2 in quadruple overtime. Overall, the offense, led by senior quarterback Andre' Woodson, performed well. The Wildcats scored 30+ points in 8 of 12 games (66.7%) and 40+ in 7 of 12 (58.3%). The defense was another story, however, as they allowed 20 or fewer points on 4 of 12 occasions (33.3%) and those games were against: Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, Florida Atlantic, and Vanderbilt.

Florida State is down for another reason. Following a disappointing 7-5 campaign this season, word has it that 23 players will be suspended for this bowl game, including 11 whom have at least some starting experience. FSU did perform fairly well against bowl competition, going an even 4-4 in such games. They beat: Colorado by 10 in Boulder, Alabama by 7 at home, Boston College by 10 on the road, and Maryland by 8 at home. They lost to: Clemson by 6 on the road, Wake Forest by 3 on the road, Virginia Tech by 19 in Blacksburg, and Florida by 33 at the Swamp. Their only other loss was a 37-19 defeat at the hands of Miami (Florida). While the defense played well for the most part, only allowing more than 24 points on three occasions, the offense was dreadful. Florida State's offense scored 30 or more points in just 1 of 12 games this season (8.3%) and that was in a 34-24 win over UAB (2-10). In half of their games, FSU has been held to 21 points or less. To no one's surprise, they're 2-4 in those games.

Determining Factor: Distractions. I had initially picked Florida State to win this one, but am grateful that I heard the news before having to make my picks. Regardless of how good a team is or how pathetic their upcoming opponent may be, a team would have to be very distracted when 23 players, 11 starters, got suspended for a big game such as this one. If Bobby Bowden finds a way to work his magic around these distractions, I'll be amazed.

What to Expect: Florida State's strength this season has been their defense, but unfortunately for them, they're ranked 73rd in pass defense and going up against one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Combining that ingredient to the 23 suspended players and it adds up to a recipe for disaster for Bobby and the 'Noles.

Prediction: Kentucky 31 Florida State 17

Insight Bowl: Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Dec. 31 at 5 p.m. CST on NFL Network in Tempe, AZ

It's been a tough year in Bloomington, Indiana, as their head coach through last year, Terry Hoeppner, died due to a brain tumor. But, the Hoosiers played with a certain kind of passion all year and as was Hoeppner's dream since the day he got to Bloomington, his Hoosiers would indeed play #13 of the season. As was the case with most Big Ten teams this year, Indiana didn't play a very tough non-conference schedule, as they went 4-0 against the likes of: Indiana State, Western Michigan, Akron, and Ball State. For the season, Indiana was 2-4 against bowl teams and 3-5 against bowl eligible competition. They fell to: Illinois by 13 at home, Michigan State by 25 in East Lansing, Penn State by 5 at home, Wisconsin by 30 at Camp Randall, and by 3 at Northwestern. Their "key" victories came against: Iowa by 18 on the road, Ball State by 18 at home, and Purdue by 3 at home. Like Penn State and other Big Ten teams, much confuses me about Indiana. Their defense allowed less than 20 points on one occasion and that was in their victory over I-AA Indiana State. Their offense has been fairly well-balanced, led by dual-threat quarterback Kellen Lewis, but not explosive by any means.

What people will probably remember most about Oklahoma State this season is coach Mike Gundy's tirade following his team's 49-45 win over Texas Tech. What should be remembered most is how explosive the offense was at times and how horrendous the defense was at others. Oklahoma State was ranked 9th in total offense, 8th in rush offense, and 28th in scoring offense, yet were held to 23 points or less in 4 of their 12 games (33.3%), all losses. The defense, meanwhile, allowed 35 or more points in 7 of their 12 games (58.3%). Okie State went 2-5 in those contests. They were also 2-5 against bowl teams and 2-6 against bowl eligible opponents. Their only two wins came against Texas Tech and Florida Atlantic. They fell to: Georgia by 21 in Athens, Troy by 18 in Alabama, A&M by 1 at College Station, Texas by 3 at home, Kansas by 15 at home, and Oklahoma by 32 in Norman. While there was much debate to start the season on who the starting quarterback would and should be, Zac Robinson emerged as the man as the season progressed. He completed close to 60% of his passes for over 2,500 yards, 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, while adding another 777 yards on the ground (6.2 ypc) and 7 touchdowns.

Determining Factor: Dual-threat. Both teams pose a dual-threat quarterback that can create loads of problems for the opposing defense and headaches for the coordinators. Who will emerge from the two as the more explosive in this game? Who will make the critical mistake? Who will make the clutch run or throw? Which defense will have a better grasp of the dual-threat quarterback on the other side?

What to Expect: Lots of points and plenty of entertainment. For every Wake and UConn game, there's one like this. With Oklahoma State, one can expect plenty of points, but plenty of points from the opposition, as well. With Zac Robinson and receiver Adarius Bowman back and playing healthy, however, I think OSU will have a bit too much offensive firepower for the Hoosiers to successfully counter. Indiana, like other Big Ten schools, isn't used to this option-style attack and with Robinson and stud tailback Dantrell Savage, along with wideout Adarius Bowman, may be even clueless on how to defend such an attack following the game than before or during it.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38 Indiana 31

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Dec. 31 at 6:30 p.m. CST on ESPN in Atlanta, GA

Along with the Holiday Bowl, which features Arizona State (10-2) and Texas (9-3), this bowl has arguably the highest quality competition preceding the New Year's Day bowl games. If not for a late charge by Boston College in the Eagles' 20-17 come-from-behind victory against Clemson late in the season, the Tigers would've played in the ACC Title game with a shot to be BCS bound. They were 4-3 on the season against bowl teams and 6-3 against clubs who qualified to play in bowl games. Their other two losses, outside of the BC game were to: Georgia Tech by 10 in Atlanta and Virginia Tech by 18 at home. Their six victories were against: Florida State by 6 at home, Louisiana-Monroe by 23 at home, Central Michigan by 56 at home, Maryland by 13 on the road, Wake Forest by 34 at home, and South Carolina by 2 on the road. Clemson presents a very balanced offense, ranked 40th overall, 36th in passing, 51st in rushing, and 23rd in scoring, led by quarterback Cullen Harper and tailbacks James Davis and C.J. Spiller. They've scored 30+ points on seven different occasions and 40+ in five different games. The defense has been a bit overshadowed by the offense, but it is fairly stout. Outside of the 41 allowed to Virginia Tech, the most Clemson has allowed this season is 26 and that was against Louisiana-Monroe in their second game. Clemson has given up 20 or fewer points in 9 of 12 games this year (75.0%).

Auburn, as has been typical in the past few years, won this season with a solid defense and not much on the offensive end. Auburn finished the regular season ranked 104th in total offense (342.4 ypg), 105th in pass offense (188.3 ypg), and 87th in scoring offense (24.3 ppg). Tenth-year senior quarterback Brandon Cox completed close to 60% of his passes, but to go along with 9 touchdowns, he threw 12 interceptions. The offense scored 24 or fewer points in 9 of 12 games (75.0%). But, the defense, for the most part, was able to make up for it, as Auburn allowed 20 or fewer points in 9 of 12 games (75.0%) and 10 or fewer in 5 of 12 (41.7%). Auburn was 3-4 against bowl-bound clubs. They defeated: Florida by 3 at the Swamp, Arkansas by 2 on the road, and Alabama by 7 at home. Their losses were to: South Florida by 3 in overtime at home, Mississippi State by 5 at home, LSU by 6 in Baton Rouge, and Georgia by 25 in Athens.

Determining Factor: Brandon Cox. I hate to put so much pressure on one guy, but I have to do it here. Clemson has a very solid defense and the only way that Auburn will be able to move the football and keep the Tigers' defense off kilter is through Cox having some success throwing the football. He also has to be able to take the pressure at times. I've seen it happen far too frequently, where Cox gets rattled early in a contest due to pressure and starts throwing the ball up for grabs throughout the remaining portions of the game. He has to play like a senior leader for Auburn's offense to have much of a chance at scoring enough points to become victorious in this one.

What to Expect: Auburn has a fine defense, but I like how Clemson's offense matches up with Auburn's defense much more so than the reverse. If Cox is rattled early on and is careless with the football, it'll be a very long day for Auburn. While Clemson's typically potent offensive attack will not be able to generate as many points as they've been accustomed to this year, they should be able to generate enough for the victory.

Prediction: Clemson 20 Auburn 6

Outback Bowl: Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Tennessee (9-4)
Jan. 1 at 10:00 a.m. CST on ESPN in Tampa, FL

All season long, it's felt as though Wisconsin was overrated. They were a top five team for the early portion of the season, before finally losing to Illinois. Even now, at #16, it feels as if these Badgers are overrated. But, credit to them, regardless of how ugly they win, they do win on a fairly consistent basis. Their non-conference schedule was Big Ten-like, as they played three I-A teams with losing records and a I-AA squad. They beat Washington State (5-7), UNLV by 7 (2-10), I-AA The Citadel by 14 (45-31), and Northern Illinois (2-10). Excluding the I-AA squad they faced, Wisconsin's non-conference opponents went a combined 9-27 (.250). Over the course of the season, the Badgers were 3-3 against bowl-bound teams and 4-3 against bowl eligible opponents, all in-conference. They beat Iowa 17-13 at home early in the season, followed that up with a 37-34 victory over Michigan State. Wisconsin then lost two consecutive, losing a tough one to Illinois in Champaign by the final score of 31-26 and then getting pummeled in Happy Valley to Penn State, 38-7. They beat Indiana at home 33-3, got drubbed by Ohio State 38-17 in Columbus, and finally, handled Michigan at Camp Randall by the final score of 37-21.

Tennessee has been a club that's been difficult to figure. It's difficult to believe that a 9-4 SEC team who won their division en route to a SEC Championship game berth could be referred to as bipolar, but the Vols can make that statement. Their four losses this year have come by a combined 84 points (21.0 per game). If one excludes their 7-point loss to LSU in the SEC title game, the Vols lost their other three by a total of 77 points (25.7 per game). Tennessee was 5-4 against bowl competition and 6-4 against bowl eligible opponents. After falling to Cal 45-31 to start the season, Tennessee beat Southern Mississippi 39-19. They then got trounced 59-20 by Florida at the Swamp. Yet, a couple weeks later, they defeated Georgia at home, 35-14. They also have a 12-point victory against Mississippi State, a 3-point overtime win against South Carolina, a 21-point win against Arkansas, and a 2-point quadruple overtime win against Kentucky to their credit, while losing by 24 points to Alabama on the road.

Determining Factor: Tennessee defense. To say the Vols' defense was atrocious in the early part of the season would be an understatement. They have improved quite a bit as the season has progressed, though. In the first four games of the season, Tennessee allowed 45 to Cal, 59 to Florida, and another 27 to Arkansas State, averaging to allow 37.5 points per game in that span. But, since then, they've averaged to give up 20.6 points a game (excluding the quadruple overtime affair with Kentucky). If Tennessee's defense shows up like they have been in recent weeks, the Vols should be in good shape, but if not, they could be in some serious trouble.

What to Expect: Due to the improved defense of the Volunteers and the uncertain health of Wisconsin stud tailback, P.J. Hill, I'm giving the slight advantage to Tennessee in this one. The Vols have also better prepared themselves through stiffer competition throughout the course of the regular season. While two of Tennessee's four out-of-conference opponents are going bowling this year, not a single one of Wisconsin's four non-conference opponents are playing a post-season game.

Prediction: Tennessee 28 Wisconsin 24

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Missouri (11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4)
Jan. 1 at 10:30 a.m. CST on FOX in Dallas, TX

Missouri was one game away from getting themselves a shot at the national championship. At 11-1 and ranked #1 in the nation, all Missouri had to do was beat Oklahoma in the Big XII title game and they'd face, in all likelihood, Ohio State in that national championship game. But, OU clobbered Mizzou in the second half (again), en route to a 38-17 victory. That was Missouri's one weakness this year, the Sooners, as both of the Tigers' losses came against OU. If one doesn't take Oklahoma into the equation, the Tigers are a perfect 11-0 this season. There are question marks about how tough the Big XII conference was this year, however, so one has to wonder just how good this Missouri team is. Possibly, their most impressive win to date was a 40-34 road victory against Illinois to open the season. Outside of the 9-3 Illini, Mizzou squared off against Mississippi (3-9), Western Michigan (5-7), and I-AA Illinois State out-of-conference. Overall, Missouri was 5-2 against bowl-bound teams. As I've already mentioned the Illinois and Oklahoma games, the Tigers' other four victories were against: Texas Tech at home, Colorado in Boulder, Texas A&M at home, and Kansas. Missouri wasn't involved in too many nail-biters this year, as only two games were decided by eight points or fewer, in their 40-34 win over Illinois and their 36-28 victory against Kansas.

Arkansas started slowly out of the gate, en route to a 3-3 record midway through the regular season, but won five of their final six games to finish the year at 8-4 and earn themselves a New Year's Day bowl. I'd give the two clubs a push in terms of their fairly weak non-conference schedules. Arkansas, like Missouri, faced three weak out-of-conference opponents, in North Texas (2-10), Florida International (1-11), and I-AA Chattanooga. Their lone tough out-of-conference opponent was in their season opener, against 8-4 Troy, whom the 'Hogs defeated 46-26. During the season, Arkansas was just 2-4 against bowl-bound clubs, but were 4-4 against bowl eligibles (Troy and South Carolina). They defeated Troy, as I mentioned, along with a 48-36 win at home against Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks, a 45-31 victory at home against Mississippi State, and a 50-48 triple overtime win in Baton Rouge against LSU. Outside of their 34-13 loss at Tennessee, Arkansas lost some tough games. They fell 41-38 in Tuscaloosa against the Crimson Tide, lost 42-29 against Kentucky, and lost 9-7 against Auburn.

Determining Factor: Focus. This goes for both teams. How focused will Missouri be after coming so close to a national title game bid? How focused will Arkansas be after head coach Houston Nutt departed for Ole Miss?

What to Expect: Some points. Neither team is known for a stiff defense and both clubs rank in the top 17 in total offense and scoring offense. Missouri has scored 31 or more points in 12 of 13 games (92.3%) this season and 40 or more in 8 of 13 (61.5%). They've also allowed 24+ in 9 of 13 games (69.2%). Arkansas scored 29+ in 10 of 12 games (83.3%) and 44+ in 7 of 12 (58.3%). They also allowed 26+ in 7 of 12 games (58.3%). Missouri is led by their quarterback, Chase Daniel, who completed nearly 70% of his passes this year for over 4,000 yards, 33 touchdowns, while only throwing 10 picks. Arkansas goes about things in a different manner, as they bring with them two tailbacks who have both eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark this season in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. McFadden galloped for 1,725 yards (5.7 ypc) this year and 15 touchdowns and Jones ran for 1,117 yards (9.1 ypc) and 11 scores. Even with the departure of Houston Nutt, I have a feeling that McFadden and Jones, who will both probably dart for the NFL following this game, will be much more focused on impressing NFL scouts than a Missouri team that fell from national title game status to the Cotton Bowl.

Prediction: Arkansas 41 Missouri 34

Gator Bowl: Texas Tech (8-4) vs. Virginia (9-3)
Jan. 1 at 12:00 p.m. CST on CBS in Jacksonville, FL

Like watching polar opposites match up in bowl games? Well, then feast your eyes on this match-up. Mike Leach's Red Raiders have one of the most entertaining offenses in the country to watch, led by quarterback Graham Harrell, who completed over 72% of his passes this year for 5,298 yards, 45 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and freshman stand-out receiver, Michael Crabtree, who caught 125 passes for 1,861 yards and 21 touchdowns, leading the nation in all three categories. Crabtree became the first freshman receiver in history to win the Biletnikoff award. These two led the Red Raiders to score 26+ points in 11 of 12 games (91.7%), 34+ in 10 of 12 (83.3%) and 42+ in 7 of 12 (58.3%). On the other end, though, Texas Tech has struggled. They allowed 24 or more points in 7 of 12 contests (58.3%) and 31 or more in 5 of 12 (41.7%). They were 1-4 in games where they allowed 31+ and 3-4 in games where they gave up 24 or more points. As is typical, Tech played a very weak non-conference schedule, going 4-0 against the likes of: SMU (1-11), UTEP (4-8), Rice (3-9), and I-AA Northwestern State. They were 2-4 on the season against bowl teams. They found a way to lose to Oklahoma State after scoring 45 points on the Cowboys, in their 49-45 loss in regulation. They were clobbered by Missouri 41-10 on the road, fell to Colorado the week following by the final score of 31-26, and lost to Texas in Austin by the final score of 59-43. In their only two victories against bowl competition, Tech dismantled Texas A&M at home, 35-7, and found a way to hang on at home against Oklahoma, 34-27.

Virginia went about their business in a much different manner this year. As Texas Tech is ranked 2nd in total offense, 1st in pass offense, and 6th in scoring offense, UVA is ranked 103rd, 81st, and 88th. On only two occasions did UVA eclipse the 30-point mark, in victories against Pittsburgh (5-7) and Miami (Florida ) (5-7). UVA broke the single-season record this year for the number of games they won by 1 or 2 points with five! They beat the following: North Carolina (4-8) 22-20 on the road, Middle Tennessee State (5-7) 23-21 on the road, Connecticut (9-3) 17-16 at home, Maryland (6-6) 18-17 on the road, and Wake Forest (8-4) 17-16 at home. That doesn't even include a 28-23 win against Georgia Tech or a 29-24 loss to North Carolina State (UVA led 24-23 late in the game). UVA was 4-1 on the season against bowl competition. I mentioned all their victories. Their lone loss was in the regular season finale against Virginia Tech, where the Cavs fell by the score of 33-21. Their defense has been solid this year. In only 4 of 12 games (33.3%) has UVA allowed 23 or more points and on two of those occasions, they gave up just 23. Outside of the 29 NC State scored and 33 Virginia Tech scored, the high any team has scored against the Cavs is 23. UVA was just 1-3 when their opponents scored 23 or more, however.

Determining Factor: Texas Tech defense. We know their offense will show up, as they almost always do. But, will their defense perform like they did against Oklahoma State (49), Missouri (41), and Texas (59) or like they did against Texas A&M (7)?

What to Expect: For Texas Tech to play for a shoot-out and for UVA to attempt to slow things down some. UVA may be able to slow the Red Raiders down SOME, but not nearly enough to attain the victory. UVA should keep things close for a half, but they don't have the potency or efficiency on offense to keep up with Harrell, Crabtree, and company.

Prediction: Texas Tech 38 Virginia 27

Capital One Bowl: Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3)
Jan. 1 at 12 p.m. CST on ABC in Orlando, FL

It was a very interesting season for the Michigan Wolverines. They were just ONE game away from earning a chance to play for the national title just a year ago and with so much talent returning on offense, many "experts" felt U of M had as good a shot as anyone to attain the trophy for the national championship. But, two games into the season and the Wolverines were 0-2 and about to flirt with a potential disaster. They became the first ranked team in NCAA history to fall to a I-AA opponents, as they lost their season and home opener to Appalachian State, 34-32. But, Michigan rallied after their 39-7 loss to Oregon to reel off eight consecutive victories before dropping their final two games. On the season, Michigan was 4-3 against bowl-bound teams and 5-3 against bowl eligibles. Along with their loss to Oregon, the Wolverines fell to Wisconsin 37-21 in Madison and 14-3 to Ohio State in Ann Arbor in their regular season finale. During the course of the regular season, they did beat: Penn State 14-9 at home, Northwestern 28-16 on the road, Purdue 48-21 at home, Illinois 27-17 on the road, and Michigan State 28-24 in East Lansing. The offense was fairly inconsistent this season. They scored 14 or less points on three occasions and went 1-2 in those games. They scored between 21 and 28 on four separate occasions and went 3-1 in those games. They scored between 32 and 38 points four different times and went 3-1 in those contests. They scored 40+ in just one game and won that one. Injuries may have been the biggest factor in the offense's inconsistency, as senior quarterback Chad Henne and senior tailback Mike Hart were hampered off and on by them.

I got rather sick and tired of hearing about eventual Heisman-winner, Tim Tebow, but to the Gators' credit, for how much talent they lost in the off-season, their 9-3 record was fairly impressive. On the season, the Gators were 4-3 against bowl competition, but an impressive 7-3 against bowl eligible teams. They clobbered Western Kentucky 49-3, beat Troy fairly handily by the score of 59-31, trounced Tennessee 59-20, beat Kentucky 45-37 on the road, beat up on their old coach on the road in South Carolina 51-31, routed Florida Atlantic in the second half 59-20, and finally, beat up on Bobby Bowden and the 'Noles 45-12. However, their three losses came against the three best defenses they faced all season, as the Gators fell to: Auburn 20-17, LSU 28-24, and Georgia 42-30. The Gators' offense was dominant, as they scored 30 or more in 10 of 12 games (83.3%) and 24+ in 11 of 12 (91.7%). They scored 45+ in 8 of 12 contests (66.7%) and 51 or more in 4 of 12 (33.3%). For the season, Florida was ranked 14th in total offense, 39th in pass offense, 27th in rush offense, and 4th in scoring offense to exhibit one of the most balanced and dangerous offensive units in the country.

Determining Factor: Lloyd Carr Inspiration. The only way I see Michigan winning this game is if the team truly gets pumped up and focused for head coach Lloyd Carr's final game in Ann Arbor. Can he truly inspire this team to victory in basically a road game against one of the more talented teams in the nation?

What to Expect: Michigan will play with fire they haven't displayed in some time, but that fire will slowly burn out and Florida's speed and talent will take over. Chad Henne and Mike Hart playing healthy will aid the Wolverines in scoring a few points, especially early in the contest, against the Gators' defense, but Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and the Gators will score too many points offensively for the Wolverines to have much of a chance.

Prediction: Florida 42 Michigan 24

Rose Bowl presented by Citi: Illinois (9-3) vs. USC (10-2)
Jan. 1 at 3:30 p.m. CST on ABC in Pasadena, CA

The largest spread this bowl season? USC's a 13.5 point favorite over Illinois in the Rose Bowl. The same Illinois team who beat then #1 ranked Ohio State 28-21 at the Horseshoe not too long ago. Many "experts" believe that USC is playing the best football in the country, but is that truly so obvious? Is USC truly a guaranteed lock to win the Rose Bowl this year? This year of all years? Illinois did probably lose one game this season they had no business losing, in their 10-6 loss in Iowa City to the Hawkeyes. But, their season-opening 40-34 loss to Missouri is definitely excusable and their 27-17 loss to Michigan, for a young team like the Illini, is also forgivable. Overall, Illinois was 5-2 against bow-bound teams and 6-3 against bowl eligible clubs. I already mentioned their losses. Their "quality" victories came against: Indiana by 13 on the road, Penn State by 7 at home, Wisconsin by 5 at home, Ball State by 11 at home, Ohio State by 7 on the road, and Northwestern by 19 at home. The Illinois scored 27 or more points in 9 of 12 games (75.0%) and allowed 22 or less in 9 of 12 games (75.0%). They were led by their running game, which ranked 5th in the nation at 266.2 yards per outing. Tailback Rashard Mendenhall led the way with 1,526 yards (6.2 ypc) and 16 touchdowns and quarterback Isaiah "Juice" Williams with 774 yards rushing (5.2 ypc) and 7 scores.

USC has been playing well as of late, but in the grand scheme of things, can they be looked at as anything but a disappointment? I can't remember any "expert" at the start of the season not picking the Trojans to be one of the two teams at season's end playing for the national championship. Their 24-17 loss to Oregon (with Dennis Dixon) at Autzen Stadium just past the midway point of the season is excusable, but their 24-23 setback to Stanford at the Coliseum was jaw-dropping in how stunning the final result was. Overall, the defense was fairly stout and consistent throughout the season, as the Trojans' allowed a high of 31 points in a game and much of that was to Nebraska during garbage time after USC took a 49-17 lead. Outside of that game, USC gave up a high of 24 points. They allowed 17 or less on 7 different occasions. USC's inconsistent offensive play is what hurt them at times over the year. This revolved around injuries and turnovers. USC scored 24 or fewer points in half of their games this year (6 of 12) and 30 or more in just 5 of 12 (41.7%). Those came against: Idaho (38), Nebraska (49), Washington State (47), Notre Dame (38), and Arizona State (44). On the year, USC was 4-1 against bowl competition. I mentioned their loss to Oregon. Their four wins came against: Oregon State 24-3 at home, California 24-17 on the road, Arizona State 44-24 on the road, and UCLA 24-7 at home. The offense has been very balanced, but not explosive, as they rank anywhere from 34th to 55th in every major offensive category.

Determining Factor: Carelessness. One thing that burned USC in their losses to Stanford and Oregon and almost burned them in their narrow victories over Washington, Arizona, and California, were turnovers and penalties. USC cannot play with a certain level of arrogance, believing they can be careless with the football and still come out of Pasadena with a victory. The same holds true for Juice Williams of Illinois. While Juice has improved his accuracy in throwing the football tremendously over this past year, another improvement he needs to make is hanging on to the football when running.

What to Expect: While many believe USC will run away with this one, I'm not entirely certain of that. Just as many Big Ten teams can attest to this, the same holds true for the Trojans - they're not very experienced in facing a spread option type offense. The one spread option team they faced this season, Oregon, they lost to by a touchdown. Many didn't believe Ohio State could lose to Illinois at home, but as the Illini proved yet again, Ohio State had/has difficulties in stopping the spread option attack. BUT, just as USC hasn't seen an offense quite like Illinois on a very frequent basis, Illinois hasn't seen a defense like USC's all season long. With the time off to heal from some injuries, I think USC's quick and aggressive defense will be able to limit Juice Williams and the Illini offense enough to pull through with yet another Rose Bowl victory. But, would I be entirely shocked with an upset here? No, not exactly.

Prediction: USC 38 Illinois 24

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Hawaii (12-0) vs. Georgia (10-2)
Jan. 1 at 7:30 p.m. CST on FOX in New Orleans, LA

Similar to the previous game, I don't know many analysts or "experts" who believe Hawaii will win this game outright. Even after Boise State's victory last year over Oklahoma, it feels as if not many people are giving the Warriors much of a chance to win this game. One reason for that? Their schedule. Hawaii played one of the weakest schedules in all the country this year. In twelve games, they only faced 3 bowl teams (25.0%). Oddly enough, these three games were all tightly contested, as they beat Fresno State 37-30, Nevada 28-26, and Boise State 39-27. In addition to those fairly tight games, Hawaii also beat Louisiana Tech 45-44 in overtime, San Jose State 42-35 in overtime, and Washington 35-28. How did they go 12-0, in addition to their weak schedule? Their potent offense. Hawaii scored at least 28 points in all 12 games they played this year, 35 or more in 11 of 12 (91.7%), and 42 or more in 8 of 12 (66.7%). They're led by Heisman Trophy finalist, Colt Brennan, at quarterback. The junior QB completed over 71% of his passes for 4,000+ yards, 38 touchdowns, and 14 picks. Hawaii finished the regular season ranked 3rd in total offense, 2nd in pass offense, and 1st in scoring (46.2 ppg).

While some like to claim USC played the best football of anyone down the stretch, I tend to disagree. I believe Georgia may have played the best. Ever since their embarrassing 35-14 loss to Tennessee, Georgia has gone 6-0, with wins over: Vanderbilt (5-7) on the road by 3, Florida (9-3) at home by 12, Troy (8-4) at home by 10, Auburn (8-4) at home by 25, Kentucky (7-5) at home by 11, and Georgia Tech (7-5) on the road by 14. They beat these six teams who have a combined record of 44-28 (.611) by 75 points (12.5 per game). For the season, Georgia is 5-2 against bowl competition and 7-2 against bowl eligible teams. I mentioned six victories. They also beat Oklahoma State 35-14 and Alabama 26-23 in overtime. Along with their loss to Tennessee, Georgia fell to South Carolina 16-12 early in the season. Georgia's offense was a little sporadic at times, but their defense was exceptional, allowing 23+ points in just 3 of 12 games (25.0%) and allowing between 13 and 17 in 7 games this season.

Determining Factor: Mentality. Will this year just be a rehash of last season's WAC upset win over a major conference opponent in a BCS game? Will the WAC team want the game more than their opponent? Will Georgia still be hanging their head after getting leap-frogged by LSU in the final BCS standings before the bowl invitations were announced?

What to Expect: I expect something similar to last year. Georgia will play lethargic early in the contest and the extra motivated Warriors will take advantage of that sloppiness. However, unlike last year, I believe Mark Richt will get his kids back into the football game quick enough where they can come back and pull out the victory. Hawaii will score a few points, but Georgia's intense defense and solid running game will be too much in the end.

Predictions: Georgia 31 Hawaii 24

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (11-2) vs. West Virginia (10-2)
Jan. 2 at 7 p.m. CST on FOX in Glendale, AZ

Both teams are out to prove something this year in the Fiesta Bowl. Just a year ago, the Sooners met up with Boise State in this very same bowl game, as OU fell to the Broncos for their third consecutive BCS game loss under Bob Stoops. West Virginia, meanwhile, was a win away against then 4-7 Pittsburgh at home from going to the BCS National Championship game, before falling 13-9 and head coach Rich Rodriguez leaving for Ann Arbor, Michigan. The Sooners have been playing great ball of late, but it kind of cracks me up to hear commentator claim that they're playing better ball than the likes of Georgia, USC, or Virginia Tech. OU has won two consecutive games. They played very well in those games, beating in-state rival Oklahoma State 49-17 and then dominating then #1 Missouri in the 2nd half of the Big XII Title game, en route to a 38-17 victory. But, let's not overdo it here. USC, Georgia, and Virginia Tech have all played stellar football over the past two months, as opposed to just a couple of games. Oklahoma dominated at some points in the season, but seemed to sleepwalk at others. Just ask Colorado and Texas Tech, the two teams who upended the Sooners. OU held a comfortable lead against Colorado in Boulder, before a 4th quarter meltdown allowed the Buffaloes to creep back into the game and eventually win on a last second field goal. The inconsistencies can be related to freshman quarterback, Sam Bradford. It's unlikely to find many consistent freshman quarterbacks around football and while Bradford was solid for the majority of the season, completing about 70% of his passes for well over 2,500 yards, 34 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions, he was inconsistent at other times. It's difficult to measure just how good the Sooners are overall. They bring with them the 2nd rated scoring offense in the country, but many of those points came early in the season against rather weak non-conference opponents. They faced: North Texas (79-10), Miami (Florida) (51-13), Utah State (54-3), and Tulsa (62-21) out-of-conference. Overall, OU was 6-2 against bowl competition this year. As I mentioned, they beat up on Tulsa of Conference-USA. They also defeated Texas by 7, Missouri twice (by 10 the first time), Texas A&M by 28, and Oklahoma State. Their defense has been their constant. In 10 of 12 games (83.3%), Oklahoma has allowed 21 or fewer points and in 5 of 12 (41.7%), they held their opponents to 14 or less.

West Virginia doesn't receive as much love and respect as other big-name programs for the simple fact they play in the Big East, but they're scrounging even more now after their 13-9 loss to Pittsburgh to close their regular season. But, for anyone who has watched them consistently will know, this is a very explosive football team, with an underrated defense, who simply choked against the Panthers. Their anchored by quarterback Pat White and tailback Steve Slaton and bring with them the 4th rated rush offense and 11th ranked scoring offense in the country. White is not a great thrower by any means, but deserves more credit than he is given, as he completed exactly 68% of his passes in the regular season for over 1,500 yards, 12 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. He also led the team in rushing with 1,185 yards (6.7 ypc) and 14 touchdowns. Slaton wasn't far behind with 1,053 yards (5.0 ypc) and 17 scores. It's amazing how much disparity there was between West Virginia's wins and losses this year. While they scored a combined 22 points in their two losses to South Florida and Pittsburgh, their lowest offensive output outside of those two games was the 28 points they scored in a win at Cincinnati late in the season. They scored 40+ points in 5 of 12 games (41.7%) and 50 or more in 3 of 12 (25.0%). Defensively, outside of allowing 31 to Louisville's typically explosive offense, the Mountaineers gave up a high of 24 points on the season and allowed 14 or fewer points in 6 of 12 games (50.0%). West Virginia was 6-1 on the season against bowl competition and 7-1 against bowl eligibles. They defeated: Maryland by 17, East Carolina by 41, Mississippi State by 25, Rutgers by 28, Louisville by 7, Cincinnati by 5, and Connecticut by 45.

Determining Factor: Focus. Who wouldn't be focused in a BCS-caliber game? You'd be surprised. Just ask the Sooners of last year. They got off to a sluggish start against Boise State and paid the penalties because of it. Heck, they've lost three consecutive BCS games (Boise State, LSU, and USC). West Virginia was one touchdown drive away from beating Pittsburgh and heading to the BCS National Championship game. Where will their heads be at in this game? Add that to the fact that Rich Rodriguez is no longer there and how focused will this team be?

What to Expect: I'd expect a lot closer game if Rodriguez didn't take the Michigan job. Oklahoma is a very solid team, one of the top five in the country, in my opinion, but West Virginia brings with them an offense the Sooners haven't seen this year and an underrated defense. If Rodriguez were still on the sidelines, I'd be tempted to take the men in blue and yellow, but with Rodriguez off to Ann Arbor, I have a hard time believing the Mountaineers will be able to rebound from their devastating loss to close the regular season and be focused enough without their head coach to win this one. I look for WVU to potentially keep this one close through the first half (much like the Missouri game), but believe Oklahoma should pull away in the second.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38 West Virginia 20

FedEx Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Kansas (11-1)
Jan. 3 at 7 p.m. CST on FOX in Miami, FL

Outside of possibly Georgia and USC, Virginia Tech has arguably been playing some of the best football in the country over the past 5+ weeks (games). In their last five games of the regular season, they beat four bowl teams and also Miami (Florida), with the closest game being a 12-point victory over Virginia in Charlottesville. Tech started the year sluggish, following the horrific school shooting spree. Starting quarterback, Sean Glennon, picked up right where he left off against Georgia last year, seemingly playing football like a deer looking at some headlights. But, after Freshman phenom Tyrod Taylor replaced Glennon, the Hokies have been a different team. Following a Taylor injury, Glennon took over the reigns and has never looked back, appearing to be a completely different quarterback and Taylor coming in here and there to give opposing defenses more to think about. Overall, the Hokies' offensive numbers are atrocious, but they are averaging over 29 points per game, including almost 35 points a game in their previous five. Defensively, outside of the aberration which was a 48-7 blow-out loss to LSU in Baton Rouge in the second week of the season, they've been great. The most the Hokies' D has allowed outside of the 48 to LSU was 23 points to the explosive Clemson offense on the road. They've allowed 16 points or less in 9 of 12 games (75.0%) this season, led by All-American linebackers Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall. For the season, Tech was 6-2 against bowl teams. They beat: East Carolina by 10 at home, Clemson by 18 on the road, Georgia Tech by 24 on the road, Florida State by 19 at home, Virginia by 12 on the road, and Boston College by 14 in the ACC Championship. Their two losses were to the before-mentioned LSU Tigers and also to Boston College by 4 on a last minute touchdown pass by Matt Ryan.

Mark Mangino is attempting to build the Kansas program to the status of a Virginia Tech. Tech was a laughing stock of college football for a long time before Frank Beamer came rolling into Blacksburg and while Kansas wasn't the Big XII doormat (thank Baylor), they have been a very mediocre to believe average team for several years until their 11-1 season this year. But, the questions still remain regarding the worthiness of that record, based upon the Jayhawks' weak schedule. In their non-conference schedule, KU faced: Central Michigan (8-6), I-AA Southeastern Louisiana, Toledo (5-7), and Florida International (1-11). They also went without facing Oklahoma, Texas, or Texas Tech of the Big XII South. They were dominant offensively for most of the season, though. They ranked 6th nationally in total offense, 16th in pass offense, 28th in rush offense, and 1st in scoring offense (44.3 ppg). They scored 28 or more in all but two games and eclipsed the 40 point mark 8 times this season. They're led by quarterback Todd Reesing, who completed well over 60% of his passes for over 3,000 yards, 32 touchdowns and only 6 picks. For the season, KU was 4-1 against bowl competition. As mentioned, they beat Central Michigan of the MAC, along with: Colorado by 5 on the road, Texas A&M by 8 on the road, and Oklahoma State by 15 on the road. Their only loss was in their regular season finale to Missouri, falling 36-28 to the Tigers.

Determining Factor: Special Teams. Come on, it's a Virginia Tech game. We can't talk about a game with the Hokies without talking about special teams. But, what may surprise some is the special teams' excellence of the Jayhawks. With the underrated KU defense, improving VT offense, excellent Hokies defense, and explosive Jayhawks' offense all facing one another, one single play in the special teams game could be the making or breaking point.

What to Expect: I'm a fan of Mark Mangino. I like to see him succeed, but have difficulty in believing that his team will be prepared for what they're about to face in Virginia Tech's defense. Tech only allowed 7 points to an explosive East Carolina team, 10 to an underrated North Carolina offense, 23 to Clemson, one of the better offenses in the ACC (if not the best), 3 to Georgia Tech on the road, 21 to Florida State, 14 to Miami (Florida), 21 to Virginia in Charlottesville, and a combined 30 points to Boston College in their two meetings. With Tech's improving offense, I look for the quarterback duo of Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor to generate enough points for the Hokies to win their school-record 12th game of the season.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27 Kansas 17

International Bowl: Rutgers (7-5) vs. Ball State (7-5)
Jan. 5 at 11 a.m. CST on ESPN 2 in Toronto, CN

This was nowhere near the year Rutgers experienced last season when they went 11-2 and were one game away from going to a BCS bowl game. That wasn't the case at all this year. Running back Ray Rice was powerful and consistent as always, but overall, there was too much inconsistency on both sides of the ball for the Scarlet Knights to win more consistently. But, this is Rutgers. Head coach Greg Schiano has brought a once dormant program, which was being mentioned alongside clubs like Temple, and has taken his club to their third consecutive bowl game. Ray Rice is the leader on offense, as he ran for 1,732 yards (5.0 ypc) and 20 touchdowns on the season. But, while Rutgers is without a consistent starting quarterback, they do have some explosive wideouts, in Britt and Underwood. Britt totaled 1,107 yards receiving on the year (19.8 ypr), 7 touchdowns, and Underwood caught 62 passes for 1,028 yards (16.6 ypr) and 6 scores. Rutgers was an unimpressive 2-5 against bowl teams this year. Their only two wins were against Navy by 17 at home and against South Florida by 3 at home. They lost to: Maryland by 10 at home, Cincinnati by 5 at home, West Virginia by 28 at home, Connecticut by 19 on the road, and Louisville by 3 on the road. To illustrate the inconsistencies. Rutgers scored in the single digits on one occasion this season, between 11 and 20 in two games, between 21 and 30 in four other games, between 31 and 40 in two contests, between 41 and 50 in two games, and over 50 on one occasion. They were almost as inconsistent on defense, where they allowed 10 points or less in three games, between 11 and 20 in two others, between 21 and 30 in three contests, between 31 and 40 in three games, and over 40 on one occasion.

Ball State has been an up-and-coming program in the MAC. Following a 5-7 season a year ago, a vast improvement over seasons previous, the Cardinals won their final two games of the regular season to vault them to a 7-5 record. They are led by underrated quarterback Nate Davis, who completed close to 60% of his passes for over 3,000 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions. For the season, Ball State was 1-3 against bowl opponents and 2-3 against bowl eligibles. They defeated Navy by 3 in overtime on the road and Western Kentucky by 23 at home. They lost to the following: Central Michigan by 20 at home, Illinois by 11 on the road, and Indiana by 18 on the road. The offense was typically efficient, as they scored 27+ points in 9 of 12 games (75.0%) and 34+ in 7 games.

Determining Factor: Match-ups. Rutgers brings with them the top-rated pass defense in the Big East and Ball State is a pass first kind of football team. It'll be interesting to see what the Cardinals do to try and make the most of their strength on offense.

What to Expect: This is an odd match-up, especially this late into the bowl season. Rutgers is a team down this year at 7-5 and Ball State is 7-5, in a down MAC conference. If this were a 7-5 Oklahoma or Texas team facing Ball State, then I may believe BSU would have a great deal more motivation heading into this game than their opponent. But, Rutgers is still a program trying to solidify success on the field and with the always fiery Greg Schiano as the head coach, I have a tough time seeing his Scarlet Knights not coming into this game with an equal fire to win this game. Due to the poor match-ups for the Cardinals, with their pass offense against the excellent secondary of the Scarlet Knights and a big bruising tailback in Ray Rice against the Cardinals' front seven, I give the edge to Rutgers.

Prediction: Rutgers 31 Ball State 21

GMAC Bowl: Bowling Green (8-4) vs. Tulsa (9-4)
Jan. 6 at 7 p.m. CST on ESPN in Mobile, AL

Like shoot-outs? This one is for you. Bowling Green is known for having a rather explosive offense in the MAC, but seemed to be slipping back into mediocrity the past couple seasons and this one, as they started the year 4-4, following a 38-27 loss to Ohio. But, the Falcons went on to win their final four games and in an impressive fashion to send them to 8-4 on the season and a bowl game. They're led by Tyler Sheehan, who completed 63% of his throws for 3,123 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 picks, to guide BGU to the 18th rated pass offense in the country. They scored 27+ points in all but three of their games and 24+ in all but two. One question mark for the Falcons is, have they been tested? They are 0-2 against bowl-bound teams this year and 1-2 against bowl eligibles. Their only win came against the I-A reclassifying school, Western Kentucky, as they beat the Hilltoppers by 20 at home. Their two losses were to Michigan State by 11 in East Lansing and Boston College by 31 on the road. Another question mark is defense. While Bowling Green did score quite a few points this season, averaging 32.1 per game (38th nationally), they did not win a game where they scored less than 31 points. Their defense allowed 28 or more in 7 games, 30 or more in 6 games, and 47 or more in two other contests.

Bowling Green's opponent, Tulsa, was even more explosive offensively this year. The Golden Hurricane finished the season ranked 1st in total offense, averaging 558.9 yards per game. They ranked 3rd in pass offense (391.0 ypg), 42nd in rush offense (167.9 ypg), and 9th in scoring offense (39.5 ppg). They are led by quarterback Paul Smith. Smith was second in the nation to Texas Tech's Graham Harrell in yards and touchdowns. Smith completed over 60% of his passes for 4,753 yards, 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Tulsa scored 21 or more in every game played, 23 or more in 12 games, 25 or more in 11 games, 29 or more in 10 games, 35 or more in 9 games, 38 or more in 8 games, 47 or more in 6 games, 48 or more in 5 games, 49 or more in 4 games, 55 or more in 2 games, and 56 or more in 1 game. Their defense, however, was nothing shout about with pride over a microphone. The defense allowed 30 or more points in 9 of 13 games this season (69.2%) and 39 or more in 7 of 13 (53.8%), including all of their three final regular season games, giving up 39 points to Army, 43 more to Rice, and 44 to Central Florida in the Conference-USA Championship game. Tulsa was tested more than Bowling Green. The Golden Hurricane went 2-3 against bowl competition and 3-3 against bowl eligible teams. They defeated: Louisiana-Monroe by 18 on the road, BYU by 8 at home, and Houston by 49 at home (no, that's not a typo). They fell to: Oklahoma by 41 at home, and Central Florida twice, once by 21 on the road and then by 19 in the conference title game.

Determining Factor: Turnover Margin. With how destitute both defenses are and how exceptional the offenses typically are, turnovers are going to be larger than life (well, that may be a SLIGHT exaggeration) in this game.

What to Expect: Points and lots of them. If there is a goalline stand in this game, I will shave my head. That's how confident I am that it won't take place. But, for how atrocious Tulsa's defense has been this year, their offense has been explosive. Outside of their four losses, Tulsa's low offensive output on the season was 29 points. With Paul Smith healthy and wanting to rebound from a very disappointing C-USA title game performance against Central Florida, I look for Smith to lead the Golden Hurricane to at least 38 points in this game. Bowling Green will score plenty of points, but not enough to upend Tulsa. They've been better prepared throughout the course of this season and are far too potent on offense for BGU to successfully counter for 60 minutes.

Prediction: Tulsa 52 Bowling Green 38

Allstate BCS Championship Game: Ohio State (11-1) vs. LSU (11-2)
Jan. 7 at 7 p.m. CST on FOX in New Orleans, LA

I can't say I'm thrilled with this match-up and just further believe that it illustrates even more clearly the need for a playoff system, or at the very least, a plus one at season's end, but in any scenario, I'll make my prediction. For starters, Ohio State's defense must be talked about. They lead all of college football in 17 different defensive categories. They've allowed 17 or fewer points in all but one game this season, their 28-21 loss to Illinois. They gave up 10 or fewer in 7 games. On the other side, their offense has been inconsistent this year, largely due to inexperience. Chris Wells is their rock on offense, though. The underheralded tailback ran for 1,463 yards this season (5.8 ypc) and 14 scores. One criticism of the Buckeyes this season has been their schedule, which makes some question just how valid those impressive statistics are. OSU faced: I-AA Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, and Kent State out-of-conference this year. The Big Ten wasn't overly impressive this year either (I'm being extra nice with that statement). On the season, OSU was 5-1 against bowl teams and 6-1 against bowl eligible clubs, all from the Big Ten conference. They defeated: Northwestern by 51 at home, Purdue by 16 on the road, Michigan State by 7 at home, Penn State by 20 in Happy Valley, Wisconsin by 21 at home, and Michigan by 11 in Ann Arbor.

LSU is the first 2-loss team to have ever competed in the BCS Championship Game. They're an interesting club. While they have been tested more thoroughly than the Buckeyes, they've also been more inconsistent, especially on the defensive end. While they allowed a total of just 32 points in their first five games, they've allowed an average of over 27 points a contest in their last eight. Even then, LSU finished the year ranked 3rd in total defense. To go with that quick and aggressive D is an offense that ranked 18th in the country (total), 53rd in the passing game, 13th on the ground, and 12th in scoring. They've scored at least 28 points in all but their final game, which they won 21-14 over Tennessee in the SEC Championship. The Tigers were 7-2 against bowl-bound teams this year. They defeated: Mississippi State by 45 on the road, Virginia Tech by 41 at home, South Carolina by 12 at home, Florida by 4 at home, Auburn by 6 at home, Alabama by 7 on the road, and Tennessee by 7 in the conference title game. They lost to Kentucky by 6 in triple overtime on the road and to Arkansas by 2 in triple overtime at home.

Determining Factor: Glenn Dorsey's Health. That's right. Wonder why there was such a disparity in numbers defensively between the Tigers' first five from their final eight games? The health of Glenn Dorsey. The big man up front was in full health early in the season, but hampered in the middle to latter stages of the regular season. That made a huge difference defensively. With the extra time off, if Dorsey is healthy for this game, that'll give a huge edge to the Tigers, but if he isn't, it could be a nail-biter.

What to Expect: I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a re-run of last year's title game. Ohio State is winless against SEC teams in bowl games. SEC teams are 6-1 in New Orleans in BCS bowl games. LSU will basically be playing in their backyard, with a healthy(-ier) Glenn Dorsey, and bring with them a spread option, two-quarterback system that Ohio State (and Big Ten teams in general) have not had success with in recent years. The Buckeyes were throttled by Chris Leak, Tim Tebow and the Gators last year, were defeated at home this year by Juice Williams, Rashard Mendenhall, and the Illini. That's not to even mention Oregon's 39-7 thumping over Michigan this year, amongst other similar scenarios. Matt Flynn and Ryan Perilloux will both see some playing time in the spread option offense, with plenty of running threats behind them. Add all these ingredients together and it's a recipe for disaster, yet again, for the Buckeyes.

Prediction: LSU 31 Ohio State 17

Bowl Record: Overall Record: 445-194 (.696)