Sunday, January 20, 2008

The media needs to know now!

That's right. Listen to these guys off and on throughout the week. Every state is a must win for one or more candidates! The problem being that we're through 4-5 states with 45-46 left to go. Many political "experts" claimed that Mike Huckabee HAD to win in South Carolina in order to have a shot at being the Republican nominee come November. Well, he finished second to John McCain, so now what are they saying? "Well, he could still have a shot in Florida." Hillary Clinton NEEDED to win in New Hampshire, the second state of the Caucus/Primary season. Barack Obama NEEDS to win South Carolina next Saturday, even though he could hypothetically lose and yet still have a lead in the delegates over Senator Clinton. Let's settle down here, guys (and gals). That'd be like me obsessing over EVERY single game in a major league baseball season.

I'm an Atlanta Braves fan, so from game 1 through game 162, the Braves NEED to win them all, right? Ha. Now, toward the very end of the season, we'll know how many the need to win, if any, to have a shot at making the playoffs, but how can we claim that game 26 and/or game 93 were the make it or break it games for the Bravos? Accordingly, how can we say that New Hampshire was a make it or break it state for Clinton or that South Carolina is/was such a state for Huckabee and/or Obama?

The only reason I see the media's point when stating Obama NEEDS South Carolina is from a momentum standpoint. As of right now, Obama has 38 delegates to Clinton's 36, but Clinton has slight momentum on her side and if she defeats Obama in a state where roughly half the Democratic electorate is African-American en route to Super Tuesday (which features New York and New Jersey, amongst other states), Obama could be in some serious trouble. But, again, is it the end all for Obama if he loses in South Carolina? No, of course not. He could potentially lose, yet be leading Clinton in delegates heading into Super Tuesday. He'd feel much better heading into February 5th with another victory under his belt, but still, let's not get carried away here.

Analysts are also saying, "Well, if McCain wins in Florida, will he be the Republican nominee come November?" There are many more delegates in Florida than in the previous states, but let's get real here. States like California, New York, Texas, amongst others are still on the slate. McCain would have a great deal of momentum heading into Super Tuesday if he were to win in Florida, but again, just because he wins in the sunshine state (one of them), doesn't guarantee an overall victory for the Arizona Senator.

I think one of the major problems with the media's anxiety is the 24-hour news' cycle. These guys (and gals) have so much time on their hands to spout facts and opinions, and recycle those same facts and opinions time and time again, that perhaps they get a little bored and want something new to discuss. How would that occur? Candidates begin dropping from the two parties and eventually, our Republican and Democratic candidates for November are known. Then they can debate and analyze with a bit more precision, in knowing who the two candidates will actually be, as opposed to speculating and hypothesizing on the matter. But, please, calm down folks. Results are continually coming in and we'll know sooner or later who the final two candidates will be in November.

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