Numbers Aren't Everything

Know anyone that's obsessed with numbers? They can't argue through logic. It always has to be through statistics. Know anyone like that? I admit, I love numbers. Why? Well, I guess I'm gifted in the area of math, so numbers and I get along quite well. But, numbers aren't everything and we can have a tendency to focus on one set of numbers too closely, while overlooking another set.

Want to find statistics or a study to support a belief or opinion you hold? I can about guarantee, regardless of your position, you'll be able to find one study or set of numbers to support your belief. Politicians love this, because they can lean on numbers, regardless of their political affiliation. While "numbers don't lie," people use numbers to lie to and manipulate the masses.

How do we truly know if a study or statistics are accurate? That depends upon consistency. We must look at a series of studies and statistics from different sources in order to decide how accurate certain statistics are. If Bush's approval rating was 78% in one poll, 31% in another, and 12% in yet another, where would we go to find the most accurate of the poll results? It lacks consistency. But, that's not the case. In recent polls, results have read: 31%, 32%, 33%, 33%, 34%, and 36%. In six studies, there's a range of only 5%. The results are very consistent and we can thereby conclude that the president's approval percentage rating is in the low to mid 30's.

But, where do most corporations and industries go for their results? Those that best support their company. Where do those affiliated with smoking, alcohol, or guns go to? What about pro-lifers and those that are pro-choice? Those that support or are against the death penalty? That's why consistency amongst numerous sources is so important, because biases can play a large factor in some studies.

The 9/11 Commission Report (study) is a prime example of how politics can play a role in a study in interfere from finding all the facts, causes, effects, responsibilities, etc. There was also only one 9/11 Commission Report, so because of that, it's impossible to find a level of consistency with what was represented in that study.

Numbers can be misused as well. For example, while it's true that most sexual abusers were sexually abused themselves, most who have been sexually abused do not go on to sexually abuse. But, many will leave that last part out of the equation and just state that most sexual abusers were once sexually abused. That's true, but they're leaving out another half of the equation. It'd be like if I were to write a math problem out: 2 + 2 x 6. Some would say that 2 + 2 = 4. They'd be correct in making that assessment, but they'd be only looking at one half of the problem, as 4 x 6 = 24.

We can also focus too heavily on some stats, while ignoring others. Brett Favre has thrown many interceptions in his day. Why? He has a rocket for an arm and can sling the ball unlike most quarterbacks in the league, so sometimes, he thinks he's Superman and tries to sling it in a spot that not even Superman himself could bit the ball into. So, he may have the most interceptions in the league at the end of the season and some may want to focus on that, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Favre's won a Super Bowl. He provides leadership. While he misses with those wild passes every now and again, he completes them at other times. He's also a winner and that's the most important statistical category for any sports' team. Stats can't measure Favre as a quarterback, a leader, a competitor, and a winner. The same is true for Michael Vick. Some like to point to his passing numbers and how he throws for only 160 yards per game and completes approximately 55% of his passes. But, Vick provides an element at quarterback that no one else in the league provides. He runs for 50 yards per game and averages around 7 yards a carry. Because of the threat he poses as a runner, the defense provides at least one spy on every play, to keep track of Vick, especially on the play actions, rollouts, or bootlegs. Because of this, it provides more room and at least one less defender to tackle the player with the football. Vick is also a winner. He's been to three Pro Bowls in three full starting seasons, has lead the Falcons to an NFC Championship Game, and lead them to the first playoff victory at Lambeau Field in recorded history. Some may like to criticize Favre, Vick, and others based on one category, but they overlook the most important number and that's in the W column.

Numbers are a very effective tool for one to use in reports, presentations, and studies, but we must be careful not to lean on numbers too greatly, especially if we're not seeing the whole picture for what it is (or isn't). One study may provide new insight to a debate, but it does not make for a breakthrough. Consistent findings in a series of studies from different sources is when people can finally stand back and see the true accuracy of the portrait that's being painted.