Tuesday, April 05, 2011

March Madness/Sadness (...and I wasn't too surprised by the final score of the title game...)

As usual, following the title game in college basketball, a sadness comes over me in knowing the tournament is complete. In my opinion, the NCAA Tournament brings forth the three most exciting weekends in the world of sports, with nothing outside of New Year's Day in college football being able to even compare with the level of excitement generated during those first four days of the tournament. With the upsets, buzzer beaters, Cinderella stories, bracket busters and basketball analysts looking like complete idiots, it's a truly fabulous time of the year in sports, even if it lasts only 10 days (where games are actually played, excluding the play-in games).

This year was particularly crazy. Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) was one of the final four teams selected into the field and along with Alabama-Birmingham (UAB), they were regarded by most analysts as undeserving to have been invited to the Big Dance. UAB may have proven themselves unworthy, as they were crushed in their play-in game by Clemson. Meanwhile, VCU won their play-in game by quite a wide margin against USC of the Pac-10. They didn't stop there. The 11-seeded Rams crushed 6th seeded Georgetown of the Big East, pounded 3rd seeded Purdue of the Big Ten, defeated 10th seeded Florida State of the ACC and beat top seeded Kansas of the Big XII to march onto the Final Four. No, I didn't just make that up while tripping acid. The 11 seeded VCU Rams, whom had to win 5 games to get there, beat 5 teams from 5 different major conferences (SEC being the exception) to wind up playing in the Final Four. My, how those analysts probably feel like idiots now, don't they? What else is new, right?

VCU's march may have been the story of the tournament, but there were plenty of other surprises. Not only did VCU make the Final Four as an 11 seed, but so did 8 seeded Butler, whom matched up with the Rams for the right to play in the national championship game. An 11 vs. an 8 in the Final Four. Who would've thunk it? It's quite rare to have a bracket buster like 11 seeded George Mason a few years ago, but to have two in the same season? Ouch!

Speaking of bracket busters, there were no 1 or 2 seeds in the Final Four. All 1's: Ohio State (to 4th seeded Kentucky), Duke (to 5th seeded Arizona), Kansas (to 11th seeded VCU) and Pittsburgh (to 8th seeded Butler) and all 2's: North Carolina (to 4th seeded Kentucky), San Diego State (to 3rd seeded Connecticut), Notre Dame (to 10th seeded Florida State) and Florida (to 8th seeded Butler) lost before reaching the Final Four. The Final Four included: 4 seed Kentucky vs. 3 seed Connecticut and 11 seed VCU vs. 8 seed Butler for the sum of the four seeds being 26, a record high for a Final Four.

It was a great tournament and I'm sad to see it end, but happy it transpired as it did. As for the National Championship game, I'm having to laugh at all the talk by analysts claiming it was the ugliest title game in college basketball history and making it seem as if they were shocked by the final score. Really, guys? Well, I'm going to play the outsider and say I wasn't all too surprised by the final.

Regardless of the sport or the source of entertainment, we want excitement, a great climax, to be riveted throughout and leave the game or the theater with a smile on our faces, wanting more. Okay, yes, that's very common and understandable. However, let's look at the two teams that were playing last night. We weren't watching North Carolina and Kansas, two high-powered offenses, not known for having the best defenses in the world, which would likely lead to a final score in the 80s for both teams. But, North Carolina and Kansas weren't playing last night. The game featured Connecticut and Butler, teams built around their defenses.

In 38 games this year, Butler held 27 opponents under 70 points (71.1%), 23 under 65 points (60.5%) and 14 under 60 points (36.8%). UConn's numbers were similar, as in 41 games, the Huskies held 27 teams under 70 points (65.9%), 20 under 65 (48.8%) and 13 under 60 (31.7%). So, in roughly 1/3 of both teams' games, they held their opponents to under 60 points.

Offensively, these two teams were not juggernauts. In 38 games, Butler was held under 70 points 14 times (36.8%), under 65 points on 10 occasions (26.3%) and held under 60 points in 4 games (10.5%). In 41 games, UConn was held under 70 points 17 times (41.5%), under 65 on 9 occasions (22.0%) and under 60 points 4 times (9.8%). So, in roughly 1/3 and 2/5 of their games, Butler and UConn were held under 70 points. Butler ranked 71st in points per game (72.8), while UConn ranked 63rd (73.4). Neither team shot the ball too well from the floor, with Butler ranking 122nd in field goal percentage (.446) and Connecticut ranking 187th (.433).

In a few such examples, Butler lost to Xavier on December 9th by the final score of 51-49, lost to Milwaukee-Wisconsin on January 3rd by the score of 76-52, defeated the before-mentioned Milwaukee-Wisconsin and Old Dominion on March 8th and 17th, respectively, by the scores of 59-44 and 60-58. UConn played in similar such games this year as they: Defeated Villanova on January 17th by the final of 61-59, beat Seton Hall on February 5th by the identical score of 61-59, fell short against Louisville on February 18th by the final of 71-58 and lost to West Virginia on March 2nd by the final score of 65-56.

Looking at the two teams' tournament performances, I don't see how we could have expected an exciting, high-flying shootout. In their six games, Butler outscored their opponents 377 - 368 (average of 62.8 - 61.3). Even when excluding their 41-point output against UConn in the title game, Butler outscored their other five tournament opponents 336 - 315 (average of 67.2 - 63.0). Of their 6 games, Butler held 4 (66.7%) under 70 and 65 (66.7%), with the lone exceptions being Pittsburgh, who scored 7o, and Florida, who scored 71, in a game that went to overtime. Butler held 3 of 6 (50.0%) under 60 (VCU scored 62), 2 of 6 under 55 (Old Dominion scored 58) and 0 of 6 under 50 (Wisconsin scored 54 and Connecticut scored 53). Connecticut, meanwhile, outscored their 6 tournament opponents by the score of 398 - 336 (average of 66.3 - 56.0) and even when excluding the final score from the national title game, those sums would read 345 - 295 (average of 69.0 - 59.0). For the tournament, UConn held all 6 opponents under 70 points (100.0%), 5 of 6 under 65 (83.3%), as San Diego State scored a whopping 67. They held 4 of 6 (66.7%) under 60, with Arizona scoring 63. The Huskies held 2 of 6 opponents (33.3%) under 55 points (Kentucky scored 55) and 1 of 6 (16.7%) under 50 (Bucknell scored 52).

One thing I think many analysts are forgetting and I'm not sure why, is the fact that Butler is like an upper echelon Princeton. NBA Analyst, Greg Anthony, even said that Butler is the best team in the country at playing poorly and yet still finding ways to stay in the game and win in the end. Why is this? Butler doesn't make many mental errors. They don't make a lot of mistakes. Even in the title game, they turned the ball over just six times. This prevents teams from having too many fast-break opportunities and with that, easy baskets at the other end. Offensively, UConn thrives in the open court, with transition points. They didn't have many such opportunities last night when their opponent turned the ball over just six times. Butler also typically takes their time on offense in order to find the open man and best percentage shot possible. They're not afraid to take up 25, 30 or all 35 seconds of the shot clock in order to get that open look. This can often times lead to final scores which may not be pretty to look at, but so long as the Bulldogs finish on top, they're not going to care whether they win 102 - 46 or 2 - 1, they'll be content to end the game with the W.

Throughout the course of the season, both Butler and Connecticut relied on their defenses to keep the games close and for their stars, Shelvin Mack and Kemba Walker, to come through for them in the clutch to vault their respective teams to victory. While the shooting last night was anything but admirable, the defenses were intense, contesting shots, being quick on the guard and not allowing many easy-basket opportunities. Even Shelvin Mack's 3-pointer at the end of the first half to vault the Bulldogs to a 22-19 lead was contested. A hand was right in Mack's face when he released the ball, but just made a heck of a shot. The shooting was poor, but let's not forget the fact that these two defenses were the reason for the teams' success both in the regular season and the tournament and this trend continued into the championship game.

For the tournament, UConn gave up an average of 59.0 points per game, while Butler allowed an average of 61.3 points. While the 53-41 final score is a bit on the low side, I would have expected a game in the 50s, maybe 60s. I did not expect a team to reach 70 last night. Anyone whom felt differently was just living in la la land. This wasn't the San Francisco 49ers led by Joe Montana and Jerry Rice against the St. Louis Rams with the likes of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt. No, this was the Steel Curtain facing the Baltimore Ravens of a few years back. It was a Big East-type brawl. While we, as fans, may want that popcorn movie, it was pretty silly to have expected such a result when these two clubs went head-to-head and like many analysts were being with regard to VCU getting invited to the Big Dance, they're being quite one-sided and silly with their critique of the title game's quality. Perhaps they should watch Arena Football from this point forward as opposed to the NFL.

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